Orient Securities: Under the rebound in gold prices, focus on leading jewellery structural opportunities, and the performance of some categories and brands is relatively outstanding

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that the short-term rebound in gold prices is a direct sentiment and valuation catalyst for gold and jewelry leaders, and if the subsequent rise in gold prices continues, it is expected to gradually transform into a driving force for gold jewelry terminal consumption. Currently, in terms of investment opportunities, the bank still recommends selecting companies with outstanding brand differentiation, strong retail operation capabilities, or a lot of room for future channels. The focus is on Chao Acer (002345.SZ), which has strong product development and brand operations; it is recommended to focus on Chow Tai Sang (002867.SZ, increase), which is expected to grow steadily in fundamentals and has high dividend expectations. Additionally, you can pay attention to some established Hong Kong stock leaders. Related targets: Chow Tai Fook (01929, unrated).

Orient Securities's main views are as follows:

The recent rebound in the gold and jewellery sector mainly comes from emotional healing brought about by rising gold prices. The continuation and height of the subsequent rebound mainly depends on gold prices

Recently, the gold and jewelry sector has shown a certain rise. The bank believes that the main driving force is the price of gold, and secondarily, it is also related to factors such as the current low valuation level and good chip structure of the leading companies involved. The continuation and height of the subsequent sector rebound still depends on the continuation of the rise in gold prices, especially the performance of gold prices after entering the peak gold and jewelry consumption season in September.

Since '26, overall gold and jewellery terminal consumption is still under relative pressure, and no significant terminal recovery has yet been seen

Against the backdrop that overall domestic consumption is still relatively sluggish, combined with rapid adjustments after a sharp rise in gold prices since the beginning of the year, overall domestic gold and jewelry terminal sales were under pressure in the first half of the year. According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, in the first half of 2026, China's gold consumption was 511.412 tons, an increase of 1.23% over the previous year. Among them: gold jewelry was 132.133 tons, down 33.88% year on year; gold bars and coins were 339.336 tons, up 28.42% year on year. In the face of high gold prices and increased fluctuations, the bank determined that some consumers would postpone purchasing decisions, or shift more to trade-in and investment demand in the form of coins and gold bars. According to the bank's grassroots tracking, there is currently no significant recovery at the terminal consumption level, but if the subsequent rise in gold prices continues and the logic is strengthened again, the bank is expected to have a positive impact on gold and jewelry consumer terminals.

The structural differentiation was obvious during the industry adjustment process, and the performance of some categories and brands was relatively outstanding

The bank believes that the overall sharp rise in gold prices in the past 2-3 years is compounded by the sharp turmoil in gold prices since this year. The channel reshaping and brand operation model transformation brought about by the gold and jewelry industry are still ongoing. The pace of channel clearance is slower than previous market expectations, and the differentiation between different categories is becoming more and more obvious. In recent years, lightweight and fashionable pure gold jewelry and high-end ancient gold jewelry have performed relatively well, and to a certain extent, they are also in line with the overall K-shaped differentiation of the economy and consumption. The bank expects that brands that mainly focus on the above two categories will also benefit relatively more.

Risk Alerts

Possible effects of repeated recovery in domestic consumer demand, fluctuations in gold prices, and geographical turmoil on gold jewelry consumption