Rakuten Group (TSE:4755) Stock Rebounds As Profit Returns But Losses Linger

Rakuten Group stock closed at ¥864 on 10 August, capping a three month run that has the share price up about 12%. The surprise is that the headline in this quarter is not sales growth. It is that Rakuten finally printed a quarterly profit again.

Basic earnings per share swung to ¥3.54 in Q2 from a loss in Q1, and net income moved into positive territory at ¥7,707m. The trailing picture still reflects losses, so the key question now is whether this quarter marks a real earnings turn or just a pause in a long restructuring story.

Is Rakuten Group suddenly a bargain at ¥864 after swinging back to profit, or is this just a breather in a longer restructuring story? Compare that quarterly turnaround with the long term loss profile on our valuation analysis for Rakuten Group

Q2 2026 Earnings Summary

• Revenue, Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025: ¥665,469m vs ¥596,369m (up about 11.6%)
• Net Income, Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025: profit of ¥7,707m vs loss of ¥50,964m (significant improvement to profitability)
• Basic EPS, Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025: ¥3.54 vs a loss of ¥23.58 (significant improvement on a per-share basis)
• Trailing 12 Month Revenue, Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025: ¥2,646,554m vs ¥2,387,398m (up about 10.9%)

Prefer clear charts instead of another page of earnings tables and footnotes? See Rakuten Group's full financial picture, with a focus on its profitability trend, in the interactive company report for Rakuten Group.

Rakuten bull story rests on sustainable profit mix

Bulls argue that Rakuten Group has turned the corner, with mobile scale, AI led ads and fintech driving a lasting margin shift. The Q2 profit of ¥7,707m and basic EPS of ¥3.54, after a long run of losses, supports that view at the group level. Revenue grew about 11% year on year to ¥665,469m and trailing 12 month revenue is up about 11% to ¥2,646,554m, which points to a broader top line that can absorb fixed costs. Earlier quarters highlighted AI powered advertising on Ichiba and Travel and tighter financial discipline. That matches this print, where profitability improves while revenue keeps expanding. However, the trailing picture is still loss making, so the milestone of consistent profitability across several quarters is not yet achieved.

Bear case tests mobile, ecosystem and funding risks

Bears worry that mobile losses, ecosystem fatigue and funding strain will cap Rakuten Group’s recovery. The latest quarter offers a mixed read. At the group level, the shift from a Q2 2025 loss of ¥50,964m to a Q2 2026 profit of ¥7,707m directly challenges the view that restructuring cannot restore earnings. Two consecutive quarters with record Q1 profit followed by Q2 net income also push back on fears that AI and cost programs are only cosmetic. That said, the trailing 12 month result still reflects losses, which supports concerns about the depth of the hole Rakuten is climbing out of. Prior commentary around asset sales, refinancing and alliances as support for financial flexibility also lines up with the bear focus on balance sheet pressure. That milestone looks only partially cleared.

Compare Rakuten Group's renewed profitability and revenue growth with how institutional analysts are reacting. See the consensus price target analysis for Rakuten Group to check whether the latest Q2 print is moving targets up, down, or not at all.

Stay Ahead With Your Rakuten Group Game Plan

After Rakuten Group swung back to a quarterly profit and revenue reached ¥665,469m in Q2 2026, it can help to keep it on the radar rather than make a one off decision. Register for free with Simply Wall St and add Rakuten Group to your Watchlist to track share price moves against fair value estimates and watch how future results shape the story. If you already hold the stock, use the Portfolio Command Center to cut through noise and focus on the key events that matter for your position. For a longer term view, tap into crowd insights through the Community and spot potential catalysts or risks early so you can stay a step ahead of the market.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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