Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Beat EPS By 50%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:4612) defied analyst predictions to release its half-yearly results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.8% to hit JP¥1.0t. Nippon Paint Holdings also reported a statutory profit of JP¥23.12, which was an impressive 50% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Nippon Paint Holdings are now predicting revenues of JP¥1.99t in 2026. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 2.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be JP¥86.57, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥2.01t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥83.18 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
View our latest analysis for Nippon Paint Holdings
The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥1,271, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nippon Paint Holdings at JP¥1,500 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,080. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nippon Paint Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Nippon Paint Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Nippon Paint Holdings following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,271, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Nippon Paint Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Nippon Paint Holdings that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.