Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) Stock Price Reflects Deepening Margin Squeeze

Keel Infrastructure stock slipped 3.2% to US$3.29 into the close, extending a tough 30 day stretch for shareholders. The price move indicates that traders are still focused on recent losses. The headline from this quarter is not the revenue line; it is the pressure running through the income statement as Keel exits Bitcoin mining and spends heavily to build high performance computing and artificial intelligence data centers.

For anyone looking beyond today’s red screen, the key question is how long this margin squeeze can last while the multi year build out story takes shape. The rest of this report unpacks that trade off.

Love the long term high performance computing theme at Keel Infrastructure but concerned about the current margin squeeze and Bitcoin exit costs? If so, you may want to check out our 56 AI infrastructure stocks to compare Keel against other stocks focused on AI infrastructure build outs.

Q2 2026 Earnings Summary

• Revenue (Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025): US$30.43m vs. US$61m (revenue roughly halved as Bitcoin mining was wound down and Keel Infrastructure shifted toward high performance computing and artificial intelligence data centers)
• Net Income from Continuing Operations (Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025): loss of US$63.95m vs. operating income of US$11m (moved from profit to a sizeable loss, driven by shutdown related charges, accelerated depreciation and higher build out spending)
• Basic EPS (Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025): loss of US$0.11 per share vs. earnings per share implied by prior year profit (per share result moved from positive to a loss as transition costs flowed through the income statement)
• Earnings from Discontinued Operations (Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025): loss of US$1.04m vs. Bitcoin related gains in the prior year (discontinued crypto operations continue to weigh on total results during the exit period)

Prefer clean charts instead of another wall of earnings tables and transition costs at Keel Infrastructure? See the full visual picture of its recent financial performance across income statement trends, balance sheet details and share price history in our company report for Keel Infrastructure.

Keel bull case: power, permits and tenant demand

Bulls argue Keel Infrastructure is turning scarce power and land into high quality AI and high performance computing leases, supported by enough liquidity to reach 2027 ready for service timelines. The quarter provided some evidence for this view. Sharon and Panther Creek now have zoning and land development approvals, with only environmental items outstanding. Moses Lake modules are arriving and Sherbrooke secured local approval for a 96 MW campus tied to existing power purchase agreements. Liquidity increased to US$819m after the US$458m convertible issue, and management guides this as sufficient to fund cash SG&A and site development through 2028. Commercially, management reports multiple NDA processes and active negotiations for uncontracted 2027 power in PJM and at Panther Creek, along with a new president hired from Digital Realty to focus on leasing. The core missing piece is signed leases. None are reported yet, so the bull story largely remains about set up rather than contracted revenue.

Keel bear case: timing, losses and execution slack

Bears are concerned that Keel Infrastructure could experience widening losses and permitting delays before any AI revenue is realized. The latest quarter aligns with several of those concerns. Revenue declined to US$30m from US$61m as Bitcoin mining was shut, while loss from continuing operations reached US$63.95m and adjusted EBITDA showed a US$24m loss. Cash SG&A running near US$100m for 2026 indicates the cost base has reset higher ahead of leasing. Environmental permits at Panther Creek are taking “a few months longer than anticipated” and Sherbrooke still awaits provincial approval, which is consistent with the view that permits determine project timing. Lease execution also appears slower than some had expected. Management continues to discuss the possibility of three major leases by the end of 2026, yet no contracts are currently in hand. The share price has fallen about 29% over 30 days, which indicates that investors are already factoring in this timing risk.

After a 29% share price decline and heavier losses ahead of leasing, it is worth asking if this pressure is temporary or part of a deeper fragility in Keel Infrastructure’s model. Review our independent risk analysis for Keel Infrastructure which shows 3 important warning signs

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If the mix of Keel Infrastructure’s margin pressure today and potential AI data center build out has your attention, register for free with Simply Wall St and add it to a Watchlist to track price against fair value and watch how the thesis develops. Once you hold Keel Infrastructure or any other stock, use the Portfolio Command Center to cut through market noise and focus on the most important developments for your positions. For a broader view on what other investors are thinking, join the Community to weigh different perspectives and share your own. By surfacing hidden catalysts and risks early, Simply Wall St helps you stay ahead of the market and make more confident decisions.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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