NAB sees RBA holding cash rate at 4.35% through 2026, flags first cut around mid-2027

• NAB noted the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in August, keeping inflation as the central policy constraint.
• Core inflation projection still returns to the 2%-3% band in H2 2027, with risks skewed to the upside.
• Financial conditions assessed as “somewhat restrictive,” with the output gap “a little smaller” than in May.
• NAB expects the RBA to stay on hold through 2026, with the next move a cut around mid-2027.
• Housing weakness flagged as a downside risk, with investor loan commitments share falling to about 0.4% from about 0.6%.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. NAB - National Australia Bank Ltd. published the original content used to generate this news brief on August 12, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.