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    Is HubSpot (HUBS) A Bargain After Earnings, Guidance, And Its AI Board Appointment?

    Simply Wall St·08/12/2026 07:36:50
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    Why HubSpot’s latest earnings and guidance matter

    HubSpot (HUBS) has drawn fresh attention after reporting second quarter results that showed higher revenue and a move to profitability, alongside updated guidance and a new AI focused board appointment.

    The company reported second quarter revenue of US$911.74 million compared with US$760.87 million a year earlier. Net income was US$43.34 million, compared with a net loss of US$3.26 million in the prior year period.

    Basic and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations came in at US$0.86, compared with a basic and diluted loss per share of US$0.06 a year ago. For some investors, this shift from loss to profit can change how they think about HubSpot’s earnings quality and valuation metrics.

    Across the first six months of 2026, HubSpot reported revenue of US$1.79b versus US$1.48b a year earlier. Net income for the period was US$75.89 million, compared with a net loss of US$25.05 million in the same period of 2025.

    Basic and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations for the half year were US$1.47, compared with a basic and diluted loss per share of US$0.48 a year ago. This gives investors a clearer earnings base to compare with the company’s current share price and recent performance.

    Alongside the earnings release on 5 August 2026, HubSpot also issued guidance for the third quarter and full year 2026. For the third quarter, the company expects total revenue of US$924 million to US$925 million, described as up 14% year over year on an as reported basis.

    GAAP operating income for the third quarter is expected in a range of US$37.56 million to US$38.56 million. GAAP net income is guided to US$33.18 million to US$34.18 million, with expected GAAP net income per basic and diluted share of US$0.67 to US$0.69.

    For the full year 2026, HubSpot forecasts total revenue of US$3.68b to US$3.69b, described as up 18% year over year on an as reported basis. GAAP operating income is projected between US$197.16 million and US$201.16 million.

    Full year GAAP net income is guided to US$180.00 million to US$184.00 million, with GAAP net income per basic and diluted share expected in a range of US$3.60 to US$3.68. This gives investors a company provided roadmap for how HubSpot expects profitability to develop over the remainder of 2026.

    The earnings update and guidance come after a difficult run for HubSpot’s stock. The shares are down about 48% over the past year and have declined about 42% year to date, despite being up about 23% over the past 3 months and about 6% over the past month.

    Short term moves have also been mixed, with the stock up about 2% on the most recent trading day but down about 11% over the past week. For investors, the combination of a weaker recent share price record and a more profitable earnings profile may prompt a fresh look at how the company is priced.

    See our latest analysis for HubSpot.

    For you as a shareholder, the story is that HubSpot’s share price has fallen sharply over the past year, with the 1 year total shareholder return down 47.97%. However, recent 90 day share price momentum of 23.19% suggests sentiment has started to improve following the earnings, guidance, buyback activity and AI focused board appointment.

    If HubSpot’s recent move has you thinking about where else AI could reshape returns, it is a good time to scan 71 profitable AI stocks that aren't just burning cash

    HubSpot’s share price has fallen hard over 12 months, then bounced sharply in the past quarter. The question now is whether this latest move mainly reflects the improving profit picture or a swing in sentiment that could fade.

    Most Popular Narrative: 33.1% Undervalued

    According to the most followed narrative on HubSpot, a fair value of $329.51 is set against the last close at $220.51, which frames this as a sizeable gap that investors are watching closely.

    HubSpot is a leading, product-led CRM platform for SMBs and mid-market companies that bundles marketing, sales, service, operations and commerce capabilities in an easy-to-adopt cloud suite. Its strong brand, inbound-marketing flywheel, partner ecosystem and user-friendly UX drive customer acquisition and retention, allowing HubSpot to capture higher lifetime value from expanding product adoption inside customers.

    Read the complete narrative.

    If you want to see what sits behind that fair value for HubSpot, the narrative leans heavily on sustained software style revenue expansion, rising margins and a future profit multiple usually associated with established category leaders. The key is how those growth and profitability assumptions interact over time and how much weight is put on earnings compounding versus valuation normalising.

    Result: Fair Value of $329.51 (UNDERVALUED)

    How this narrative fits with HubSpot’s current numbers

    The narrative from greenbooksilver focuses on HubSpot’s role as a product led CRM platform for small and mid sized businesses and ties the valuation to that business model. It emphasises the land and expand approach, where new customers start on lower tiers or free tools and then add more Hubs and seats over time, which supports expectations for higher revenue per customer if that pattern continues.

    The same narrative points to HubSpot’s recent move into profitability and positive free cash flow in the latest reported period as a foundation for the fair value. That links to the company data that show HubSpot reporting net income of $146.85m on revenue of $3.45b, and an annual net income growth rate of 33.55% combined with revenue growth of 11.94%.

    Greenbooksilver also anchors the story in balance sheet strength, noting no net debt and capacity to keep funding research and development. That aligns with HubSpot’s focus on areas like its Breeze AI features, Commerce Hub and deeper suites across marketing, sales and service, which the narrative argues could support customer retention and pricing over time if adoption remains strong.

    For you as a shareholder, a key part of this narrative is the view that customers are unlikely to build a full HubSpot style system in house to avoid using HubSpot. That is used to support the idea of a narrow to medium moat in the small and mid sized business segment, with switching costs created by integrations, data and user familiarity rather than long term customised enterprise deployments.

    Revenue and earnings forecasts in the statements data sit alongside this. Earnings are expected to grow 33.5% per year while revenue is forecast to grow 11.9% per year, which the narrative treats as consistent with a company that is already at scale and now focused on improving margins while still adding new customers and products.

    There are also tensions in the story that matter for anyone using this fair value as a reference point. The narrative highlights risks from AI commoditisation in marketing and customer support, possible pressure when competing for larger enterprise accounts against Salesforce or Adobe, and sensitivity to changes in software valuation multiples if growth slows.

    Finally, the narrative’s fair value and discount rate of 8.52% sit alongside HubSpot’s Simply Wall St value score of 2 out of 6 and classification as expensive on P/E metrics versus the software peer group. That contrast between a discounted cash flow style narrative fair value and high headline multiples is part of what investors will weigh as they decide how much importance to give the popular narrative’s assumptions.

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this story can change quickly if AI tools become more generic and pressure HubSpot’s pricing, or if rivals win more enterprise deals and slow its upsell path.

    Find out about the key risks to this HubSpot narrative.

    Another view on HubSpot’s valuation

    The popular HubSpot narrative leans on discounted cash flows and sets fair value at $329.51, above the current $220.51 share price. The SWS DCF model uses a future cash flow value estimate of $897.86 per share, which also points to HubSpot as undervalued.

    Both approaches depend on long term cash generation assumptions and discount rates that are open to debate. The question for you is whether these cash flow driven values feel realistic for HubSpot’s business over time or whether they build in more optimism than you are comfortable with.

    Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

    HUBS Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2026
    HUBS Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2026

    Next Steps

    After weighing HubSpot’s recent earnings, guidance and valuation narratives, the sentiment is mixed enough that you may want to check the numbers yourself and move quickly to form your own view using the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond HubSpot?

    If you want to keep sharpening your process after reviewing HubSpot, it makes sense to line up a few high quality alternatives before the next move.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.