Shen Wan Hongyuan: The upward logic of shipbuilding companies' performance verification cycle as new shipbuilding prices continue to rise

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shen Wan Hongyuan released a research report saying that the upward trend in new ship prices continues, and oil scattering ship prices are resonating upward. New shipbuilding prices continued to grow in July and have been rising for 4 consecutive months. Since the beginning of the year, the boom in the oil transportation market has remained high, and shipowners' willingness to place orders to build new ships has increased, driving the price of new tankers leading the way up. Compared with ship prices at the beginning of the year, the current price of new tankers has increased by 4.18%, bulk carriers by 4.98%, container ships by 2.02%, gas carriers by 1.91%, and automobile carriers by 1.11%. In the context of different ship types sharing shipyard production capacity, ship prices for various ship types have resonated upward, and the trend is expected to continue.

Shen Wan Hongyuan's main views are as follows:

Order volume side

The number of orders signed in July declined seasonally, there was a year-on-year increase in oil tankers and LNG carriers, and the July order structure is still quite balanced. Orders in the past three years and July have all declined sequentially, mainly affected by centralized confirmation at the end of the second quarter, summer vacations in Europe and the US, and statistical delays. In July, 3.57 million CGT were counted, -56% month-on-month and -22% year-on-year; tankers and LNG carriers were +69%/+184% year-on-year. Considering Clarkson's subsequent additions, the final order size is expected to continue to rise.

The pre-increase in the 26Q2 performance of Songfa Co., Ltd. exceeded expectations. Delivery of high-priced orders and improved efficiency drove the release of profits at an accelerated pace, and there is plenty of potential for performance growth

Performance: The company expects 26H1 net profit of about 3.6 billion yuan, +456% year on year; 26Q2 net profit of about 2.5 billion yuan, +129% month-on-month and +275% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. The rapid rise in production capacity and the gradual delivery of high-priced orders accelerate the release of profits.

Simultaneous optimization of volume and price and ship structure. By the end of July, the estimated delivery volume for 26-28 was +423%/+60%/+52%; bulk carrier deliveries fell from 64% in '26 to 10% in '28, the share of container ships rose from 0% to 46%, and the share of VLCCs and large LNG dual-fuel container ships increased. MSC's potential order further validates high-end box ship construction capabilities.

The expansion of production capacity supports long-term growth. In July, the company signed a new order volume of 490,000 CGT. The main production schedule is 2028-2029, and the long-term single-year output was further increased. The company's annual output value is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan after the first to third period of efficient operation; the fourth phase of land has been approved, and there is still room for imagination for subsequent production expansion.

The 26Q2 performance of China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Defense was in line with expectations, and the optimization of the order structure supported the increase in profits.

China Shipping: The net profit of 26H1 is expected to be 92-11 billion yuan, +144%-191% compared to the same period after the consolidation; 26Q2 net profit to mother is 43.7-6.17 billion yuan, +140%-239% year-on-year, with a median value of 5.27 billion yuan, in line with expectations.

China Shipbuilding Defense: Expected net profit of 26H1 to mother was 79-890 million yuan, +50%-69% year over year; 26Q2 net profit to mother was 3.9-490 million yuan, +15% to 44% year over year, with a median value of 444 million yuan, in line with expectations.

Yangzijiang: 26H1 shipbuilding gross profit margin (37%) reached a record high, raising the industry's profit margin ceiling

Risk warning: the civil ship business has received fewer new orders than expected; the shipping boom has declined; the price of raw materials such as steel has risen sharply; competition in the industry has intensified due to the entry of other countries such as Southeast Asia; there is a risk of differences between performance forecasts and actual performance