BlackBerry (TSX:BB) Has Investors Asking A Different Question
BlackBerry (TSX:BB) drew investor attention after its stock gained 1.7% on a down day for the broader market, as traders positioned ahead of an earnings report that is expected to show revenue growth with flat EPS.
See our latest analysis for BlackBerry.
At a share price of CA$12.52, BlackBerry has shown strong momentum over 2026 so far, with a year to date share price return of 139.85% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 148.91%. However, the 30 day share price return of 19.49% suggests some recent cooling after a sharp 90 day share price gain of 49.76%, as investors reassess the balance between growth potential and earnings risk ahead of results.
If you are looking beyond BlackBerry for other opportunities, this is a useful moment to see which companies are quietly compounding value through a solid track record of founder leadership via the 3 top founder-led companies
After such a sharp run and with BlackBerry now trading above the average analyst target, the current CA$12.52 price sits well above many fair value estimates. How wide is that gap once the assumptions are unpacked?
Most Popular Narrative: 22.8% Undervalued
According to the most followed narrative on BlackBerry, the fair value of CA$16.22 sits well above the last close at CA$12.52. This puts a clear spotlight on the assumptions behind that gap.
A $200M bet made for entirely the wrong reasons, on what looked like a car stereo OS acquired from a speaker company, has become an 83%-gross-margin royalty machine embedded in 275 million vehicles, with a $950M contracted backlog, and a Nvidia partnership positioning it as the safety infrastructure layer that physical AI cannot be commercially deployed without. The market mispriced it for a decade because everyone remembered it as a dead phone company. Turns out the best investments are sometimes the ones nobody planned.
The current narrative leans heavily on royalty economics, high margin software and a long runway for earnings growth. It ties these together with a richer future profit multiple and assumes that physical AI design wins steadily convert into cash flow. The details behind those projections, and how they stack up against past execution, are where this fair value really comes to life.
Result: Fair Value of CA$16.22 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this BlackBerry narrative can be quickly tested if automakers slow production and if physical AI royalties take longer than expected to show up in a meaningful way.
Find out about the key risks to this BlackBerry narrative.
Another View: What BlackBerry’s P/E Ratio Is Telling You
There is a very different message once you look at BlackBerry through its P/E ratio. At 88.1x, the stock trades well above the North American Software industry average of 33x and the peer average of 87.7x, while the fair ratio sits at 32.3x. That gap points to real valuation risk if sentiment or earnings expectations shift.
For investors who want to see how this compares with other valuation checks, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
With sentiment on BlackBerry clearly mixed, this is a good time to move quickly and test the story against the data yourself. To see how the current upside case lines up against the key concerns, review the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
Looking for more stock ideas beyond BlackBerry?
If you want to round out your BlackBerry research, this is the moment to scan other high potential stocks that could complement your portfolio.
- Target potential mispricings by checking out companies highlighted in the 10 high quality undervalued stocks.
- Strengthen your income stream by reviewing stocks in the 4 dividend fortresses.
- Prioritise resilience and capital preservation by screening for companies in the 6 resilient stocks with low risk scores.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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