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    SES (ENXTPA:SESG) Could Be 35% Undervalued After IRIS² Milestone

    Simply Wall St·08/12/2026 14:43:05
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    SES (ENXTPA:SESG) is back in focus after confirming the successful completion of Rendez-vous 1 under the IRIS² programme, a key milestone that clarifies Medium Earth Orbit plans and long-term investment commitments.

    See our latest analysis for SES.

    Recent trading has been choppy for SES, with the share price at €5.4 and a 30 day share price return down 29.92%. Meanwhile, the 1 year total shareholder return declined 4.05%, which suggests that near term sentiment has softened even as multi year returns remain positive.

    If IRIS² and inflight connectivity growth have caught your attention, this can be a good moment to widen your search with SES peers in critical communications and infrastructure via the 36 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

    SES now has a clearer path for its MEO plans and sizeable IRIS² commitments, yet the share price has retreated sharply. Is this a strong connectivity business that is temporarily marked down, or is the current valuation simply fair?

    Most Popular Narrative: 34.5% Undervalued

    On the most followed narrative, SES has an estimated fair value of €8.25 compared with a last close of €5.40. This places that story firmly in the undervalued camp and raises questions about how its cash flows are being modeled.

    The long term shift toward software defined multi orbit constellations requires heavy upfront investment. Projects like O3b mPOWER and meoSphere, together with IRIS2 commitments, are front loading 2026 CapEx to around €700 million, which can constrain free cash flow and slow any improvement in earnings and leverage.

    Read the complete narrative.

    SES is being valued on a blueprint where heavy near term spending is expected to turn into healthier margins and future earnings. The narrative leans on steady revenue progress, improving profitability and a higher earnings multiple than many media peers. This raises the question of which assumptions carry the most weight in that €8.25 figure and how sensitive it is to even small shifts in growth or margins.

    The valuation work behind this narrative uses an 8.71% discount rate and blends revenue growth, margin recovery and a future P/E that is higher than the current media industry average. For readers, the key question is whether those inputs line up with personal expectations for SES and its mix of Media, Networks and government contracts.

    Result: Fair Value of €8.25 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, SES also carries risks that could challenge this undervalued story, including pressure on Media and Fixed Data revenues and execution risk around Intelsat integration synergies.

    Find out about the key risks to this SES narrative.

    Next Steps

    If this mix of potential risks and rewards around SES feels finely balanced, look at the full set of data now and weigh it against your own expectations before sentiment shifts again, then review the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond SES?

    Do not stop your research with SES. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not relying on a single connectivity story when other opportunities could suit you better.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.