Energy Vault (NRGV) Stock Can Backlog Turn Growth Into Profits

Energy Vault Holdings stock jumped 9.5% to US$3.92 today, yet the real story sits behind that pop. Q2 revenue of US$17.4 million and a reported GAAP gross margin of 31% kept attention squarely on the quality of its storage and data center energy projects rather than the headline loss. The backlog is now about US$2.0b. That is the figure that long term investors are likely watching most closely as they weigh a premium P/S multiple against a business that is still not generating profit.

Is Energy Vault Holdings stock priced for that US$2.0b backlog and forecast 23.2% revenue growth, or already ahead of itself given ongoing losses? See how current multiples line up in our valuation analysis for Energy Vault Holdings.

Q2 2026 Earnings Summary

• Revenue (Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025): US$17.4 million vs. US$8.512 million (revenue more than doubled year over year)
• Net Loss (Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025): US$29.7 million loss vs. US$34.9 million loss (loss narrowed year over year)
• Basic EPS (Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025): Loss per share not disclosed for Q2 2026 vs. loss of US$0.222591 per share in Q2 2025 (both quarters remained in loss making territory)
• GAAP Gross Margin (Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025): 31% vs. roughly 29.6% (140 basis point improvement year over year)

Prefer visual charts over scrolling through dense earnings tables and backlog figures for Energy Vault Holdings? Explore the company’s full financial picture, including a clear view of its valuation in our company report for Energy Vault Holdings.

Energy Vault bullish case meets key backlog tests

Bulls argue Energy Vault will turn a growing project pipeline into recurring cash flow through its Asset Vault model and long duration contracts. The latest quarter moves that story from slideware toward execution. Backlog reached about US$2.0b and is roughly 60% build own operate, which directly supports the push toward recurring EBITDA rather than one off EPC fees. The 1.1 GW portfolio under control is now tied to a stated target of about US$180 million annualized recurring EBITDA, giving investors a concrete yardstick rather than just promise.

The bullish narrative also leans on funding access and data center power demand. Cash and equivalents increased to US$148 million after a run of six quarters of improvement. Management linked contract wins and a new 1.25 GW integrated generation and storage deal to AI and hyperscale compute needs. That is early but tangible proof of traction in the AI linked infrastructure theme.

Compare Energy Vault Holdings’ push toward recurring EBITDA, a US$2.0b backlog and AI linked contracts with what institutions are actually pricing in. See the consensus price target analysis for Energy Vault Holdings to check whether Wall Street targets are keeping up with the story.

Energy Vault bear case still flags path to profits

The bearish view argues Energy Vault stays stuck with lumpy projects, heavy capital needs and slow progress toward real earnings. The latest quarter does not fully clear those worries. Revenue of US$17.4 million and a 31% GAAP gross margin show projects can produce gross profit, yet adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net loss both widened. That means scale is not yet absorbing higher OpEx tied to Asset Vault build out and AI infrastructure work.

Backlog of about US$2.0b, with 60% build own operate, helps address pipeline risk on paper. However, management expects most 2026 revenue to bunch in Q4 and links a large 1.25 GW contract to 2027 heavy recognition. That timing keeps the concentration and milestone risk argument alive. Cash rising to US$148 million softens financing concerns for now, but the model still requires project level capital to prove bears wrong on capital intensity.

After a quarter in which Energy Vault Holdings remains loss making and reliant on a concentrated backlog, it may be useful to ask whether execution or capital intensity risks are beginning to emerge. Review the independent risk analysis for Energy Vault Holdings which shows 2 important warning signs for potential structural flags and hidden vulnerabilities that might not be apparent from the headline numbers.

Stay Ahead Of Your Next Move

If the mix of a US$2.0b backlog, AI linked contracts and ongoing losses has put Energy Vault Holdings on your radar, register for free with Simply Wall St and add it to a Watchlist to track price against fair value and watch how execution unfolds. Once you decide to take a position, use the Portfolio Command Center to cut through noise and focus only on the most important developments that relate to your holdings. For longer term decisions, tap into the Community to see how other investors are thinking about the same risks and potential catalysts. This combination can help you surface hidden drivers and problems early so you stay ahead of the market instead of reacting to it.

Seeking Alternatives Beyond Energy Vault

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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