CITIC Construction Investment: Hongmeng luxury car intensive launch robot “mass production+capitalization” double click is imminent

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment Securities released a research report saying that the automotive sector was highly catalyzed this week: the production and sales/delivery data of mainstream OEMs in July was revealed at the beginning of the month, and the export chain once again completely exceeded expectations. This week, Hongmeng luxury cars were intensively listed, and domestic demand was further concentrated on offshore chains and high-end chains during the off-season; Yushu Technology officially determined the issuance price of 150.8 yuan/share and the issuance market value of 61 billion yuan. The issuance was 45 percent higher than the original fundraising plan, and the Tesla Optimus production line was clearly put into operation on August 19 and August The World Robotics Congress is approaching, August It has become an intensive long window for robots to “mass production verification+capitalization”; commercial vehicles “are not weak in the off-season” in the second quarter, and the results need to be released urgently, and the logic of leading performance and valuation increases continues.

The automotive sector was catalytically intensive this week: At the beginning of the month, mainstream OEMs revealed concentrated production and sales/delivery data in July, and the export chain once again completely exceeded expectations. This week, Hongmeng luxury cars were intensively launched, and domestic demand was further concentrated in the offshore chain and high-end chain during the off-season; Yushu Technology officially determined the issuance price of 150.8 yuan/share and the issuance market value of 61 billion yuan. The issuance was revised 45% from the original fund-raising plan, and the Tesla Optimus production line was clearly scheduled to be put into operation during the year. August 19 World Robotics Conference was approaching, and August became a robot “mass production verification +” The intensive “capitalization” window for lengthening; commercial vehicles “are not weak in the off-season” in the second quarter, and the results need to be released urgently, and the logic of leading performance and valuation increases continues.

Passenger cars: Production and sales/delivery data from OEMs were revealed one after another at the beginning of the month, and still showed the characteristics of “domestic demand under pressure during the off-season and strong exports exceeding expectations”. The Passenger Link branch estimated retail sales of about 1.52 million passenger cars in the narrow sense of the term in July, with a penetration rate of about 980,000 units; data from the General Administration of Customs on August 7 showed that electric vehicle exports were +71.2% in the first 7 months, with many highlights on the export side: BYD sold 419,000 vehicles (+21.8%) in July, including 179,800 overseas vehicles (+124.3%); Chery Group became the first Chinese car company to export more than 200,000 vehicles in a single month; Geely 250,000 vehicles were sold for 5 consecutive months. Double increase, exports 106,700 vehicles reached a new high of +202% year-on-year. The Zunjie V680/V800 was officially launched this week, and the Xinjie G9 began pre-sale. The 1-hour launch was 2115 units (S800 1,000 units), and the 24h Dading 3,500 units were 70% high-spec (S800 1,600 units); the Xinjie G9 pre-sold 2h5100 units, 24h10300 units, accounting for 90% of the high configuration; orders are in full swing, waiting for September delivery data. We maintain our previous view: pessimistic expectations for domestic demand have been fully priced. August has entered an intensive disclosure period in the interim report. The fulfillment of Q2 results and expectations for the beginning of Q3 will determine the sustainability of the market; structural α continues to be optimistic that passenger car exports exceed expectations and the acceleration of high-end new energy sources, and the valuation space favors the transformation of physical AI into a new paradigm for growth.

Commercial vehicles: At present, it is recommended to focus on investment opportunities with undervalued and strong performance leaders. The heavy truck sector continues to be optimistic about Weichai, the AI power supply leader. Since late July, the AI power business has welcomed intensive catalysis, including GNRC from major North American customers increasing order size and the SOFC business speeding up commercialization in Europe. The interim results are expected to be delivered steadily. Exports from the heavy truck industry continued to grow at a high rate of about 40% in July. Heavy truck exports are expected to remain at a historically high level, and the high level of prosperity will help repair its own valuation. In terms of buses, considering the current negative trade/risks between China and Europe, etc., have been clearly mitigated,

Physical AI: 1) Dual catalytic implementation of the robot's main line “mass production rhythm+capitalization”. Yu Shu officially determined the issuance price of 150.8 yuan/share and the issuance market value of 61 billion yuan. The distribution was 45% higher than the original fund-raising plan, and the match list presented a strong combination of “technical allies+industry giants+national team”, which exceeded expectations; the other is that after listing, it is expected to guide the entire chain of capital coverage algorithms, complete manufacturing, core components, and scenario operations to strengthen leading demonstrations and accelerate industrial collaboration. Currently, market expectations for the robot sector are weak, but according to industry chain research, Optimus mass production is already on the way. The robot industry, which has been growing for 4-5 years, is expected to face an inflection point; domestic chain catalytic acceleration; at the same time, domestic robot mass production and scenario verification are accelerating simultaneously. Therefore, we emphasize the investment strategy — long-term layout, allocation at low prices, and focus on core goals. It is recommended to focus on the configuration values of the following indicators, including Tesla Chain's high win rate, technology iterative upgrade direction, and undervaluation with poor expectations.

2) The core catalyst for the smart driving sector is getting closer: Amazon Zoox was approved by NHTSA to operate without a steering wheel and no pedals in Las Vegas this month; on August 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the first mandatory L3/L4 national standard to be implemented on July 1, 2027, applicable to Class M and Class N vehicles. The new regulations will force the industry to accelerate product finalization. The medium- to long-term trend towards smart driving is still clear. We are optimistic about incremental component and solution suppliers under the L3/L4 industry trend.