According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the US-Israel conflict has been delayed for more than five months. In response to recent market concerns about the potential Iran-Oman air traffic agreement, we believe that the agreement cannot completely resolve the risk of strait navigation. The situation in the Middle East may still be in the midst of a repeated cycle of impasse between Trump's “TACO-style concessions” and “escalation of annoyance into anger.” The reason for this is that, firstly, the agreement is essentially a tool for Iran to exert pressure on the US, but its tough attitude will directly jeopardize Trump's political legacy, making it difficult for negotiations between the two sides to progress. Second, there are still structural conflicts between the parties over control of the strait, or it may be difficult to establish a long-term stable management system. Taken together, the really observable signal in the future is whether the US will officially launch sanctions exemptions, asset unfreezing, and maritime blockade adjustments. Looking ahead to the subsequent impact, in the short to medium term, even if all parties reach a strait management arrangement and lift the blockade, navigation volume will not necessarily return quickly and completely to pre-war levels. Under the limited navigation scenario, global inflationary pressure is still present, but the extreme risk is manageable. In the long run, the game surrounding the Strait of Hormuz shows that America's ability and will to maintain global order is declining at an accelerated pace, and will accelerate the restructuring of the Middle East's geopolitical landscape and global supply chain.

According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the US-Israel conflict has been delayed for more than five months. In response to recent market concerns about the potential Iran-Oman air traffic agreement, we believe that the agreement cannot completely resolve the risk of strait navigation. The situation in the Middle East may still be in the midst of a repeated cycle of impasse between Trump's “TACO-style concessions” and “escalation of annoyance into anger.” The reason for this is that, firstly, the agreement is essentially a tool for Iran to exert pressure on the US, but its tough attitude will directly jeopardize Trump's political legacy, making it difficult for negotiations between the two sides to progress. Second, the parties still have structural conflicts over control of the strait, or it may be difficult to establish a long-term stable management system. Taken together, the really observable signal in the future is whether the US will officially launch sanctions exemptions, asset unfreezing, and maritime blockade adjustments. Looking ahead to the subsequent impact, in the short to medium term, even if all parties reach a strait management arrangement and lift the blockade, navigation volume will not necessarily return quickly and completely to pre-war levels. Under the limited navigation scenario, global inflationary pressure is still present, but the extreme risk is manageable. In the long run, the game surrounding the Strait of Hormuz shows that America's ability and will to maintain global order is declining at an accelerated pace, and will accelerate the restructuring of the Middle East's geopolitical landscape and global supply chain.