Guoxin Securities: Potash imports continued to increase in July, and I am optimistic that the market price of glyphosate will rise further
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the global potash industry has an oligopoly, resource scarcity is prominent, and the medium- to long-term supply and demand pattern continues to be optimized. At the same time, demand for potash fertilizer is expected to benefit from increased demand for biofuels under high oil prices, and product prices are expected to rise moderately. There is a gap between domestic potash supply and demand, and the dependence on foreign imports is high. The bank is optimistic that the long-term price center for phosphate ore will remain at a high level. As the world enters a new inventory cycle, the bank is optimistic about the systemic competitive advantage of China's pesticide industry. There is still room to increase the share of global raw drug production, and pesticide prices are expected to bottom out and rebound after the industry's capital expenditure slows down and anti-domestic efforts advance. Meanwhile, with the cancellation of export tax rebates for a batch of pesticides such as glyphosate, pesticide companies' production costs will increase, and backward production capacity will be cleared at an accelerated pace. The bank is optimistic that the market price of glyphosate will rise further in the future.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
Potash imports increased in July, and the port accumulated reserves of fertilizer during the off-season
China is the world's largest demand for potash fertilizer, and the supply of potash resources is insufficient, and the dependence on imports is close to 70%. In 2025, China's potassium chloride production was 5.82 million tons, a decrease of 6% from the previous year, and the import volume was 126.14 million tons, which is basically the same as the previous year. In July, the domestic potassium chloride market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price focus continued to decline. At the end of July, the average price of Baichuan Yingfu potassium chloride market was 3,250 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous month, and up 0.62% from the previous year. Domestic potash construction started relatively steadily in July, and the salt lake production plant is still undergoing rotational maintenance. Although it is slowly recovering, supply is limited. In terms of imported potassium, as of July 24, the total storage volume of the port was about 3.33 million tons (including free trade zones), an increase of about 92.49% over the previous year, and some supplies entered the national reserve system. From January to June 2026, a total of about 8.8034 million tons of potassium chloride were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 40.18%. Among them, the monthly import volume in June was 1,384.62 million tons, a decrease of 13.94% month-on-month and an increase of 113.07% year-on-year. Although the import volume was slightly lower than in May, it remained high, far higher than the import volume for the same period in previous years. China's potash chloride import source pattern remains stable. Russia, Laos, Canada, and Belarus together account for about 92.55%. In terms of the international market, the international potash market was clearly divided regionally in July. The European market was supported by tight supply and rising logistics costs, and the contract price of potassium chloride delivered in the third quarter rose month-on-month; while major demand markets such as South America and Southeast Asia were affected by sufficient supply, prices continued to fall under pressure. It is worth noting that Ural Potash announced the shutdown of the granulation plant in July. The production of granular potassium will be reduced by 30%-40% during the maintenance period, with a total reduction of about 30-400,000 tons. This measure is expected to ease the excess pressure on global granular potassium. Following the launch of large-scale tenders in Indonesia and Bangladesh, the international potash market is expected to gain a new support point.
Demand for energy storage continues to improve, and I am optimistic that the long-term price center of phosphate ore will remain at a high level
According to data from the Advanced Industrial Research Institute (GGII), China's lithium battery shipments in the first half of 2026 were about 1.2 TWh, up more than 50% year on year. Among them, power battery shipments were about 630 GWh, an increase of more than 30% year on year, and energy storage battery shipments were about 485 GWh, an increase of more than 80% year on year. Behind this round of high growth is the double resonance of the domestic energy storage demand structure extending from the “source network side” to multiple scenarios, compounding the rush for overseas exports. The centralized implementation of subsidy policies in Australia, the Middle East and Europe has further catalyzed the concentration of global demand for energy storage. The rapid growth of installed energy storage is bringing about a large demand for lithium iron phosphate. According to Baichuan Yingfu, in July 2026, China's lithium iron phosphate production was 530,000 tons, +230,000 tons year-on-year, and +60,000 tons month-on-month. Assuming that global energy storage battery shipments will increase to 600/800/983 GWh respectively in 2025-2027, the corresponding demand for phosphate ore will rise to 600/800/9.83 million tons, accounting for 4.7%/5.9%/7.0% of China's predicted phosphate ore production, respectively, and the share of phosphorus resources consumed in the field of new energy batteries will continue to increase. On the supply side of phosphate ore, the grade of phosphate ore that can be mined in China has declined, and the mining difficulty and cost have increased. The investment period for additional production capacity is long, and the scarce nature of phosphate ore is becoming more and more prominent. The market price of 30% grade phosphate ore has been running for more than 3 years at a high price of 900 yuan/ton. As of July 31, 2026, the price of 30% grade phosphate ore ships in the Hubei market including tax was 1,080 yuan/ton, the same as the previous month. I am optimistic that the long-term price center of phosphate ore will remain at a high level.
Bayer withdraws glyphosate “double reverse” application to China, and the number of exports of diphosphates declined
On July 17, 2026, with only three days left until the US Department of Commerce is expected to officially file the case, Bayer's Ruveon company suddenly announced the withdrawal of the “double reverse” investigation application against Chinese glyphosate. From the submission of the application on June 30 to the withdrawal of the application on July 17, it was only 17 days before and after. On the glyphosate side, since March, due to the US-Iran conflict, raw material prices have fluctuated greatly, and glyphosate production costs have fluctuated. In late April, glyphosate rose to 34,500 yuan/ton in East China, and fell back to 25,800 yuan/ton on August 10. In terms of glyphosate, in January 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement to cancel export tax rebates for various pesticide raw drug products such as glyphosate and glyphosate from April 1, 2026. Affected by this, the market price of glyphosate began to rise. As of August 10, 2026, the market price of glyphosate in East China was 49,000 yuan/ton, up 5,100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year. It is worth mentioning that according to Baichuan Yingfu, in 2020-2025, China's production of glyphosate increased from 183,000 tons to 120,400 tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 45.78%. After the price reduction of glyphosate, the cost performance ratio was prominent, and global demand increased rapidly. In terms of exports, in the first half of 2026, China's cumulative export volume of other non-halogenated organophosphorus derivatives was 329,900 tons, down 2.78% year on year. Among them, exports to North America fell 25.58% year on year, and exports to Latin America increased 10.86% year on year.
Risk warning: production safety and environmental protection risks; risk of demand for agrochemical products falling short of expectations; market risk due to capacity expansion; risk of fluctuating raw material prices; international trade risks, etc.