Societe Generale Securities: The strait blockade forces energy transformation, marine engineering and automobile shipping ushered in long-term investment opportunities
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Societe Generale Securities released a research report saying that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is forcing the global energy transition, which has long-term benefits for marine engineering and automobile shipping. In order to reduce dependence on oil and gas in the Middle East, countries are speeding up independent offshore oil and gas extraction and offshore wind power development. At the same time, high oil prices are driving the electrification transformation of road traffic to speed up. This is expected to make marine engineering and automobile shipping a “growth highland” in the shipping industry. Heavy-lift multi-purpose ships have both conventional supply resilience, flexible offshore demand, and aging ship expectations; semi-submersible ships are scarce and barriers are high; automobile ships benefit from electric vehicle trade and an increase in China's export share, and supply-side austerity expectations are clear.
Societe Generale Securities's main views are as follows:
Offshore engineering: the core gripper of energy supply-side transformation
Offshore engineering covers the three major sectors of offshore oil and gas engineering, offshore new energy engineering, and marine infrastructure engineering. Special ships play a central role in this. Since 2020, the industry has begun a second upward cycle driven by new energy sources, and demand has gradually been decoupled from fluctuations in oil prices. Looking forward to the future, China's “15th Five-Year Plan” requires more than 100 GW of offshore wind power installations in 2030 (average annual completion of 10.6 GW), and Europe's annual import demand of 20.2 GW of wind power equipment from 2026 to 2030, all of which require offshore vessels to participate in transportation. Specifically, to the ship type:
Heavy cranes and multi-purpose ships are the main forces in offshore transportation. Since 2022, rent levels have increased significantly compared to container ships and bulk carriers, and have broken away from the traditional shipping cycle
On the demand side, general freight (containers, bulk goods) forms the “ballast stone” of demand, and marine equipment transportation (extra-long components such as fan blades and towers) is a new source of growth. The supply-side pattern is tight: old ships over 15 years account for 64%, and over 20 years account for 35%, far higher than mainstream ship types; although on-hand orders have grown to 6.29 million dwt, they only account for 18.8% of the fleet, lower than the share of old ships over 20 years (35%), and container ships and tankers crowd out platforms, making it difficult to deliver new orders until 2029, making it difficult to deliver new orders until 2029, and the additional capacity in the next three years will not be enough to cover the capacity.
Semi-submersible ships: scarce ship type, supply clearance expectations are strong
Semi-submersible ships have both “supercarrier” and “installation platform” functions, and are responsible for the transportation and installation of large-scale offshore equipment such as drilling platforms, wind power bases, and immersed tube tunnels. There are only 61 ships and 2,815 million DWT ships in the world, accounting for 43% of old ships over 20 years, and 30% over 30, with great potential for clearance; while only 3 ships are ordered in hand (accounting for 7.4% of capacity), it is difficult to cover the clearance capacity. The semi-submersible ship market is highly concentrated: the two leading companies (COSCO Haite and Boskalis) account for a total of 54.5%, with high entry barriers. Chinese operators have established a foothold and are expected to reap excess profits.
Automobile shipping: Another upward cycle has begun in recent years, and energy conversion has become the theme
From 2020 to 2025, the global offshore automobile trade volume increased from 16.76 million vehicles to 26.51 million units (CAGR 9.6%), of which the CAGR for electric vehicles reached 28.2%, accounting for 22%. China's automobile exports soared from 990,000 to 7.06 million units (CAGR 48.0%), contributing 57.9% of the increase in global automobile trade. In the future, the dual trend of “oil to electricity” and emerging markets will also drive the long-term expansion of automobile trade. Car and ship rents rebounded to 80,000 US dollars/day in July 2026, with remarkable flexibility; ships over 15 years old account for 57%, and 26% for ships over 20 years. The peak of deliveries passed in 2025, with only 20.63% of orders in hand, and high shipping prices and long queues locked in new supply until 2029. In the competitive landscape, Japanese and South Korean shipowners took the top four (44.8% share), with CR10 reaching 75.7%; the share of Chinese shipowners is still unremarkable, which does not match China's status as a major automobile exporter, and there is plenty of room for development under the “China National Automobile Transportation” logic.
Risk warning: Market environment risks, transportation operation risks, and oil prices disrupt profits.