SDIC Securities: Demand expands the lithium price boom or continues the industry's high profit cycle, which is expected to continue
The Zhitong Finance App learned that SDIC Securities released a research report saying that the gap between supply and demand provides favorable support for the short-term price of lithium carbonate, and the industry's high profit cycle is expected to continue. China's lithium carbonate industry continues to have a tight structural balance pattern. According to the bank's estimates, China's lithium carbonate supply and demand gap is estimated to be about 46,782 tons in 2026. At the same time, in 2026, the upward trend in oil prices combined with electricity market-based reforms will continue to be deepened, which will further promote the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the expansion of the installed capacity of energy storage. The supporting role of downstream demand on lithium carbonate prices is expected to continue to strengthen. It is recommended to focus on enterprises with strong cost control capabilities, abundant mine production capacity, and a relatively complete global resource layout.
SDIC Securities's main views are as follows:
Supply side: supply is rising steadily, and short-term disturbances are gradually eliminated
The bank expects China's total supply of lithium carbonate in 2026 to be 1,724,800 tons, +42.77% year on year. Its domestic production is about 1.393,800 tons, +43.63% year over year, and net imports are 33.1 million tons, or +39.28% year over year. In terms of production process, spodumene is the main source of lithium carbonate production in China. In June 2026, spodumite/lithium extraction/secondary recycling accounted for 57.88%/11.99%/17.82%/12.30%, respectively. In addition to domestic production capacity, the import side also forms an important supply-side complement. In June 2026, China imported 25,900 tons of lithium carbonate, accounting for 18.32% of the total domestic production and import volume during the same period. Import sources are highly concentrated in Argentina and Chile. Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, supply-side disturbances in lithium carbonate will gradually be eliminated. Zimbabwe has resumed exports of lithium concentrate but the arrival time is yet to be determined. The Ningde Era Jianxiawo lithium mine has also regained a safety production license. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase steadily in the second half of the year.
Demand side: downstream consumption continues to be strong, and the battery sector is the main consumer
According to SMM statistics, domestic lithium carbonate consumption in 2025 is about 1,229,700 tons; the bank estimates that domestic lithium carbonate consumption is expected to increase to 1.771,600 tons in 2026, an increase of 44.07% over the previous year. Judging from the demand structure, power batteries and energy storage batteries are the main growth drivers for lithium carbonate consumption. In terms of power batteries, benefiting from the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the scale of lithium carbonate demand is steadily expanding. According to the bank's estimates, the 2026/2030/2035 power battery capacity growth was 1000/1341/1651 GW·h, respectively, and the corresponding lithium carbonate consumption is expected to be 70/93.87/1.1557 million tons; in terms of energy storage batteries, power market-based reforms and direct green power connection policies have ushered in rapid growth in energy storage battery installed capacity, which has become the second growth engine for lithium carbonate demand. The bank expects energy storage battery capacity growth of 750/1200/1600 GW·h in 2026/2030/2035, respectively, corresponding to 52.5/84/1.12 million tons of lithium carbonate consumption. In addition to power batteries and energy storage batteries, traditional industries such as consumer batteries, glass ceramics, and grease also have corresponding demand for lithium carbonate, but the overall contribution is limited.
Risk warning: Risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations, supply release exceeding expectations, risk of macroeconomic disturbances, risk of global trade conflict, risk of measurement errors.