Embraer S.A. (BVMF:EMBJ3) Released Earnings Last Week And Analysts Lifted Their Price Target To R$101
It's been a good week for Embraer S.A. (BVMF:EMBJ3) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.9% to R$96.18. Overall the results were a little better than the analysts were expecting, with revenues beating forecasts by 8.6%to hit R$12b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, Embraer's 14 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be R$44.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$44.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$4.09 in 2026. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Embraer
Additionally, the consensus price target for Embraer rose 6.4% to R$101, showing a clear increase in optimism from the the analysts involved. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Embraer analyst has a price target of R$125 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at R$87.21. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Embraer's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 10% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Embraer is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
At least one of Embraer's 14 analysts has provided estimates out to 2028, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
You can also see whether Embraer is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.