Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXSM) Just Reported Second-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?
The second-quarter results for Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXSM) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues came in at US$218m, in line with expectations, while statutory losses per share were substantially higher than expected, at US$0.99 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Axsome Therapeutics from 20 analysts is for revenues of US$972.9m in 2026. If met, it would imply a major 25% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 28% to US$2.62. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$979.1m and losses of US$2.08 per share in 2026. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Axsome Therapeutics even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a sizeable expansion in per-share losses.
View our latest analysis for Axsome Therapeutics
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$285, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Axsome Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$380 and the most bearish at US$246 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Axsome Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 57% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 57% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that Axsome Therapeutics is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Axsome Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.