US stock outlook | The three major stock index futures rose sharply, and US July PPI will be revealed tonight, Lenovo's results will take HP and Dell

Pre-market market trends

1. On August 13 (Thursday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.30%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.22%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.12%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.36%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.27%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.13%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.47%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 2.16% to $81.47 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 1.88% to $87.13 per barrel.

Market news

The yen is once again approaching the 160 key mark, and interest rate hikes are expected to be difficult to stop the decline. Even after people familiar with the matter said that Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's government supports interest rate hikes, the yen is still near a critical level against the US dollar. The yen held steady on Thursday, trading around 159.36 against the US dollar. In the past, when the exchange rate approached 160, it usually meant that the government might intervene to support the yen. According to people familiar with the matter, the next interest rate adjustment may be in September or October. They added that the central bank's concerns about the weak yen driving up prices and the government's desire to enhance the effects of recent US and Japanese monetary intervention have led the two sides to agree on the need to raise interest rates in the near future. Investors said the news had little impact on the yen because the market already anticipated the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates. As Japan still faces a large interest rate gap with the US and a heavy debt burden, the yen has continued to weaken recently.

Iran says it will consume the US in a protracted war. In an interview broadcast on US public television (PBS) on August 11 local time, Mohammed Reza Nagdi, adviser to the Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, pointed out that the two main goals of America's war against Iran — overthrowing Iran's leadership and splitting Iran — “have failed” and “victory is on Iran's side.” Nagdi said that he saw America's confusion and confusion in this war. “America announced a new goal in three days and two, making it a war with 'no strategy'.” Nagdi also stressed that Iran will continue to win. In the battle with the US for more than five months, Iran has not only accumulated experience, but also seen that the US military is weaker than expected — and Iran must be deterred so that the enemy will never dare to attack Iran again, and one method is to “prolong the war” and consume the US. In this way, if anyone wants to attack Iran in the future, “they will first weigh the costs they will pay.”

Bank of America: In the era of proxy AI, CPUs need to be “1:1” with GPUs. The wave of intelligent AI (Agentic AI) is fundamentally changing the computing architecture of data centers, and the strategic position of CPUs has jumped dramatically. In its latest research report, Bank of America Securities raised the total potential market size (TAM) for server CPUs in 2030 to over 210 billion US dollars, an increase of more than 20% over the previous forecast of about 170 billion US dollars, and raised the compound annual growth rate forecast from 30% to 36%. The core logic of this adjustment is that as AI workloads shift from training to inference and evolve to intelligent AI, the CPU's role in data center systems is being upgraded from the GPU's “supporting role” to the “control plane” of intelligent body orchestration. Bank of America anticipates that the ratio of CPU to GPU will gradually narrow from about 1:4 in the training era to about 1:2 in the AI inference stage, and eventually approach 1:1 in the smart AI era. This means that by 2030, CPUs will account for about 10% of the total TAM of the $2.2 trillion data center system, up from less than 7% in the 2024-2025 training era.

The key “reinforcements” on the eve of the IPO? Anthropic is rumored to be negotiating the $6 billion acquisition of Decart AI to optimize AI computing power efficiency. With only a few weeks left until its high-profile initial public offering (IPO), artificial intelligence giant Anthropic PBC is speeding up its technology moat through acquisitions. According to people familiar with the matter, the AI star company is in in-depth negotiations to acquire Israeli AI infrastructure startup Decart AI, and the deal is valued at around $6 billion. Once settled, this deal will be Anthropic's largest merger and acquisition to date, and it is also Anthropic's most critical “technical reinforcement” move before the IPO—it is worth noting that Nvidia was originally a potential buyer of this deal, but was cut off by Anthropic when negotiations came to an end.

The Bank of Korea bought gold assets for the first time in 13 years, and may continue to increase its holdings. The Bank of Korea bought gold-related assets for the first time in 13 years to hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty. According to a document submitted to the US Securities and Exchange, the Bank of Korea held 679,765 SPDR Gold Shares worth about US$250 million as of the end of the second quarter. Documents show that three months ago, the bank did not hold any shares in the world's largest physical gold-backed ETF. The Bank of Korea said the investment was its first purchase of gold-linked assets since 2013. This purchase will not increase the bank's official gold reserves, as gold ETFs are classified as securities and are part of foreign exchange reserves. Choi Kyuho, an economist at Hanwha Investment & Securities (Hanwha Investment & Securities), said, “The Bank of Korea's current allocation ratio for gold is quite low. From the perspective of aligning with global standards, the Bank of Korea still has room to buy more gold. I think they will gradually increase their gold holdings.”

Individual stock news

Lenovo's performance brought HP (HPQ.US) and Dell (DELL.US). Shares of HP and Dell rose 7% and 4%, respectively, in pre-market trading on Thursday. Earlier, PC peer Lenovo reported better-than-expected results for the first fiscal quarter. Lenovo's revenue for the quarter ending June 30 increased 43.1% year over year to US$26.94 billion, the highest growth rate in five years and the strongest quarter in the company's history. Factors driving the quarter's earnings growth included strong performance across all of its business units, with the Infrastructure Solutions Division's revenue almost doubling (up 98% year over year) to reach $8.5 billion.

According to reports, Apple (AAPL.US) is negotiating to pay publishers to enhance its artificial intelligence Siri. According to people familiar with the matter, Apple is negotiating a new cooperation agreement with the publisher and plans to use its content to provide the latest news and information with the aim of improving the performance of its artificial intelligence voice assistant Siri. People familiar with the matter revealed that Apple has been in touch with publishers in recent months. The proposed new multi-year agreement will allow Apple to obtain the right to use relevant content, thereby enhancing Siri's performance. The feature is expected to be launched later this year. Some people familiar with the matter said that Apple has proposed a floating payment plan, which pays fees to partner publishers based on content usage. They also revealed that Apple has discussed a budget that could be as high as hundreds of millions of dollars.

High tariffs and technical restrictions are under double pressure: Ford Motor Company (F.US) will move part of its Lincoln production line back to the US starting in 2030. Ford Motor CEO said on Wednesday that the company plans to move production of some Lincoln models from China to the US starting in 2030. Both fuel vehicles and electric vehicles imported from China are subject to high tariffs. Ford confirmed that as its main model imported from China, the Lincoln Navigator's US tariff rate has reached 52.5%. Farley said that as part of a move to significantly expand production, Lincoln models produced in the US will be sold in the US market, but the company did not say exactly where they will be put into production. In addition to tariffs, car manufacturers also face restrictions under the Connected Vehicle Rule (Connected Vehicle Rule), which prohibits the use of some Chinese technology and hardware in models sold in the US. Farley said that these two regulations jointly prompted Ford to make this decision, but he pointed out that tariffs are the core driving factor.

Starship's 14th test flight may arrive at the end of the month! UBS: It will be the key to SpaceX (SPCX.US)'s growth acceleration. According to previous reports, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk announced in the company's first quarterly earnings call that the 14th Starship (Starship) test flight will be carried out at the end of August. UBS analyst Gavin Parsons points out that this test flight may mark an important turning point — from proving that this giant rocket works properly to showing all the capabilities needed to support the company's ambitious growth plans. According to reports, Musk plans to carry out the 14th Starship test flight by the end of August. This test flight will usher in two major technological breakthroughs — the first launch of the first upgraded Starlink V3 satellites into orbit, and the first attempt to recover the upper stage (spacecraft) of a Starship through a land launch tower. Musk said that the 14th Starship test flight marks a major leap forward in the development of this reusable rocket. He also revealed that whether to try land recycling during the 14th flight depends on the data performance of the 13th test flight and the final approval of regulators such as the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). If approved, SpaceX will use a giant robotic arm installed on the Texas launch tower to capture and recover the upper stage of the starship about 52 meters high in the air. Previously, SpaceX had successfully used the technology several times to recycle super-heavy boosters (Tier 1).

Paramount (PSKY.US) is considering selling CNN to settle 12 state antitrust lawsuits. According to reports, Paramount Chief Legal Officer Makan Delrahim said on Wednesday that selling CNN is one of the options to resolve the 12-state antitrust lawsuit, which is threatening the company's plan to buy Warner Bros. Explore (WBD.US) for $110 billion. The move shows that Paramount is willing to take action beyond internal safeguards to salvage the most politicized media merger in recent years. Meanwhile, there are reports that Paramount has discussed setting up an editorial board for CNN and establishing other safeguards to maintain its editorial independence. Relevant internal discussions began even before the antitrust lawsuit was filed. The company responded judiciously: “We are always open to internal improvements that enhance journalistic integrity.”

Key economic data and event forecasts

20:15 Beijing time: 2026 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Hamak delivered a speech.

20:30 Beijing time: The annual rate of PPI in the US for July, and the number of jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 8.

20:40 Beijing time: 2027 FOMC voting committee and Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin delivered a speech on the economic outlook.

Performance Forecast

Friday morning: Applied Materials (AMAT.US), Sound Network (API.US)

Friday pre-market: Fog Core Technology (RLX.US)