Hainan’s electric roadmap

THE southern island province of Hainan’s goal of becoming China’s first region to halt sales of new fossil-fuel vehicles marks a landmark step in the country’s efforts to decarbonise the transportation sector and is also part of Hainan’s push to build a “green” province.

According to the 15th Five-Year Plan for the Hainan National Ecological Civilisation Pilot Zone – released recently by the provincial government – the province will “smoothly advance” the ban on sales of new internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030.

By that year, 100% of new and replacement vehicles in public services and commercial operations, and 100% of new private vehicles, must be new energy vehicles (NEVs).

The vehicle-to-charger ratio is targeted to remain below 2.5:1.

The policy has raised questions among some consumers concerned about the fate of their existing petrol-powered cars.

Will they still be allowed on the road?

Li Ziwen, associate researcher at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said that the ban applies only to new vehicles, not to vehicles already in use.

“Vehicles already registered and in normal use will be unaffected,” he said.

“Owners’ rights will not be compromised. Fuel vehicles registered before 2030 can continue to operate normally, undergo regular inspections and be legally transferred until they reach scrappage standards.

“There will be no compulsory elimination or traffic restrictions.

“As a national ecological civilisation pilot zone and an international tourism island, Hainan’s ecological advantages – its blue skies, white beaches and clear waters – are its core competitiveness,” Li said.

“Banning new fossil-fuel vehicles and promoting NEVs aligns perfectly with Hainan’s green, low-carbon development positioning and its rich ecological endowment.

“The province enjoys distinct geographic and climatic advantages that make the transition more feasible.”

With year-round warm temperatures, battery performance degradation in cold weather is not a significant concern – a critical factor given that low temperatures can reduce electric vehicle range in many northern regions.

Hainan’s land area spans 35,400 sq km, with the distance from Haikou to Sanya being less than 300km and a round-island drive of under 1,000km.

This compact geography means range anxiety is far less pronounced.

“Based on the range of current flagship NEV models, most single trips within the island can be completed without recharging, or with just one charge,” Li said.

Charging infrastructure is also well established, a prerequisite for large-scale NEV adoption.

Official data show that as of August 2025, Hainan had more than 230,000 charging piles across 4,895 charging stations, achieving a vehicle-to-charger ratio of 2.1:1 – better than the national average.

Highway service areas and all townships have achieved 100% charging coverage.

Clean energy has become the province’s largest power source, and Hainan ranks first and second nationally in NEV market penetration and per capita ownership share, respectively.

The 2030 ban is not a sudden policy shift but the culmination of more than eight years of steady planning.

In April 2018, the central government first proposed “gradually prohibiting the sale of fossil-fuel vehicles in Hainan” in official guidance on deepening reform and opening-up.

That marked the first time the term “ban” appeared in an official document.

In March 2019, Hainan released its Clean Energy Vehicle Development Plan, becoming the first province to give a specific timeline – 2030 for a province- wide ban.

In August 2022, the provincial carbon peaking implementation plan further refined the targets, mandating 100% clean energy for new public vehicles by 2025 and 100% for new private vehicles by 2030.

The latest plan, issued in July 2026, is the third key document in this progression.

It breaks down specific targets and tasks, including the vehicle-to-charger ratio requirement and the orderly promotion of fuel-cell vehicle demonstrations in heavy trucks, cold-chain logistics and public transport.

The policy has been accompanied by growing public acceptance of NEVs, both nationally and locally.

Commerce Ministry data show that China’s NEV passenger vehicle market penetration rose from 5.7% in 2020 to 53.9% in 2025 – more than half of all new cars sold.

In Hainan, the figures are even more striking.

According to provincial industry authorities, Hainan promoted 116,800 new NEVs in 2025, accounting for 62.9% of all new vehicles.

That means six out of every 10 new cars purchased in Hainan last year were NEVs.

In April 2026 alone, the NEV penetration rate hit a record 74.5%.

Total NEV ownership in Hainan reached 517,000 units by the end of November 2025, representing 23.04% of the province’s total vehicle fleet.

The strong consumer preference is driven by fiscal policies and infrastructure.

Hainan does not collect separate highway tolls; instead, road maintenance expenses are incorporated into fuel prices, making petrol consistently more than one yuan (US$0.15) per litre more expensive than on the mainland.

Zhang Xiang, a guest professor at Hainan Vocational University of Science and Technology and an auto industry analyst, said that this pricing structure, combined with comprehensive charging networks and short driving distances, gives NEVs a compelling cost advantage over petrol vehicles.

But Li from the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research cautioned that Hainan’s model may not be directly replicable in other provinces.

In inland regions, vehicles frequently cross provincial borders, and a blanket ban on fuel-vehicle sales could trigger cross-regional purchases, raising management costs and undermining the ban’s effectiveness.

Regions such as Northeast China, the Yangtze River Delta and Central China still have relatively complete fossil-fuel vehicle supply chains; a sudden ban could disrupt industrial stability and employment.

Cold winters in northern areas also pose greater challenges for battery performance.

Therefore, Li stressed that other regions should formulate differentiated policies based on local conditions and avoid a one-size-fits-all approach.

“Hainan’s relatively enclosed geography makes it easier to take the lead,” said Shi Jianhua, vice-chairman of China EV100, a Beijing-based auto industry think tank.

Beyond ecological protection, a successful implementation could yield a “China solution” for NEV promotion, generating valuable experience in policy design, infrastructure development, consumer guidance and industrial transformation.

The plan sets a target of raising NEV ownership from 23.75% in 2025 to 45% by 2030 – nearly doubling the current share.

This will require continued infrastructure expansion and refinement. — China Daily/ANN