First Solar (FSLR) Could Be 10% Below Fair Value Following Strong Cash Flow Turnaround
First Solar (FSLR) is back in focus after a period of exceptional annual revenue growth and a shift to positive free cash flow, paired with rising returns on capital that highlight recent management decisions.
See our latest analysis for First Solar.
Despite a 12.81% total shareholder return over the past year and a 138.59% total shareholder return over five years, First Solar’s share price is down 17.78% year to date, with recent 7 day and 90 day share price returns also weaker. This suggests some of last year’s optimism is being reassessed, even as the longer term picture remains constructive.
If you are looking beyond First Solar for other energy and infrastructure ideas, this is a good moment to scan the 38 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks.
The recent pullback in First Solar after strong multi year shareholder returns leaves a simple tension. Has the stock already reflected most of the good news, or does the current valuation still leave meaningful upside on the table?
Most Popular Narrative: 10.5% Undervalued
The most followed narrative on First Solar places fair value at $251.90 per share, above the last close of $225.56, which frames the current pullback in a different light.
The steadily growing, visibility-rich contracted backlog (currently at $18.5 billion and 64 GW, with price adjusters for tech milestones and tariffs) provides stability against industry volatility. This allows consistent revenue recognition and helps mitigate net margin compression, even amid cyclical and policy-driven swings in global solar markets.
Want to see what sits behind that backlog story? The fair value hinges on steady revenue expansion, fatter margins, and a future earnings multiple that may surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of $251.90 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, you still need to weigh the reliance on U.S. tax credits and tariffs, as well as the risk that competing solar technologies could pressure First Solar’s pricing power.
Find out about the key risks to this First Solar narrative.
Next Steps
The different views on First Solar in this article show how the same facts can support more than one opinion, so move quickly and weigh the data yourself. To see what is driving current optimism around the rewards on offer, review the 4 key rewards
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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