Brenntag SE Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Brenntag SE (ETR:BNR) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.2% to €61.38 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. Brenntag beat revenue forecasts by a solid 16% to hit €4.3b. Statutory earnings per share fell 12% short of expectations, at €1.23. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the 13 analysts covering Brenntag are now predicting revenues of €15.5b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a modest 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 52% to €3.82. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €15.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.56 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
View our latest analysis for Brenntag
The consensus price target was unchanged at €57.43, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Brenntag, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €76.00 and the most bearish at €44.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Brenntag is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 5.0% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 0.06% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 5.4% annually. So while Brenntag's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Brenntag following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at €57.43, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Brenntag analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Brenntag that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.