Earnings Beat: Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
Shareholders might have noticed that Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. (TSE:3099) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.3% to JP¥3,548 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥129b were what the analysts expected, Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥63.80 per share, an impressive 64% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings after the latest results.
After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings are now predicting revenues of JP¥561.7b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a modest 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 20% to JP¥182 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥563.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥181 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
See our latest analysis for Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,679, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥4,300 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,400. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 2.8% growth to the end of 2027 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.4% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.3% annually for the foreseeable future. Although Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,679, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.