Analysts Are Updating Their JD Logistics, Inc. (HKG:2618) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results
It's been a sad week for JD Logistics, Inc. (HKG:2618), who've watched their investment drop 16% to HK$12.23 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at CN¥64b, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for JD Logistics from 19 analysts is for revenues of CN¥265.4b in 2026. If met, it would imply a notable 9.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 16% to CN¥1.29. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥264.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.33 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for JD Logistics
The consensus price target held steady at HK$18.30, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on JD Logistics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$22.21 and the most bearish at HK$16.01 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 19% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 17% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that JD Logistics is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$18.30, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for JD Logistics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the JD Logistics Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.