Backblaze (BLZE) Faces A Valuation Test Following Strong Earnings And Higher 2026 Guidance
Backblaze (BLZE) is back in focus after second quarter 2026 results showed higher sales and a smaller net loss, paired with raised full year revenue guidance and fresh AI focused product and partnership updates.
See our latest analysis for Backblaze.
Backblaze’s recent earnings, higher full year revenue guidance and AI focused product news come after a strong run in the stock. The 30 day share price return was 43.87% and the year to date share price return was 301.27%. The 3 year total shareholder return of 321.73% shows how long term holders have been rewarded, yet short term volatility remains, including a 1 day share price return that declined 6.9% to US$19.02.
If you are tracking how AI infrastructure stocks are moving after earnings and product announcements, it could be a useful moment to scan 55 AI infrastructure stocks.
After Backblaze’s sharp re rating and higher 2026 revenue guidance, the debate now centers on the stock’s path from here. Is most of the re pricing already captured, or does the current valuation still leave meaningful upside?
Most Popular Narrative: 104% Overvalued
Backblaze last closed at $19.02, compared with a most followed narrative fair value of $9.34 that is based on long term earnings and cash flow assumptions.
The explosive increase in AI workloads is driving a step-function expansion in Backblaze's addressable market. AI customer data stored grew 40x year-over-year, and 3 of their top 10 customers are now AI companies, positioning B2 Cloud as a direct beneficiary of surging global data creation and accelerating secular demand that could result in accelerated multi-year revenue growth.
Want to see what keeps that AI storage ramp going in the model? The narrative leans on specific revenue growth, margin lift and future multiples.
The fair value estimate of $9.34 uses a 9.06% discount rate and incorporates detailed assumptions for future revenue growth, eventual profit margins and the P/E level that could apply if Backblaze reaches those earnings by around 2029. The narrative also factors in expected share count changes, then discounts those future cash flows and earnings back to today to align them with the current price of $19.02.
Result: Fair Value of $9.34 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the Backblaze narrative still carries key risks, including reliance on a handful of large AI workloads and ongoing declines in the legacy Computer Backup segment.
Find out about the key risks to this Backblaze narrative.
Another View on Backblaze Using Sales Multiples
The SWS DCF model points to Backblaze being very expensive at $19.02 compared with an estimated future cash flow value of just $0.12 per share. Yet on a price-to-sales basis the stock trades at 7.5x, which is far below a 14.2x peer average but well above a 4.1x fair ratio estimate. For investors, that split can look like either valuation risk or a momentum premium. Which side do you think it sits on?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
With Backblaze pulled in different directions by risks and rewards, it makes sense to look at the full picture and decide quickly for yourself using the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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