Earnings Miss: DFDS A/S Missed EPS By 44% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Shareholders of DFDS A/S (CPH:DFDS) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 19% to kr.155 following its latest second-quarter results. Results overall were not great, with earnings of kr.3.03 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit kr.8.6b and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from DFDS' three analysts is for revenues of kr.32.4b in 2026. This reflects a satisfactory 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. DFDS is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of kr.13.80 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr.32.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr.10.78 in 2026. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the considerable lift to earnings per share expectations following these results.
View our latest analysis for DFDS
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of kr.149, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values DFDS at kr.160 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr.137. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that DFDS' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while DFDS' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around DFDS' earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr.149, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for DFDS going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with DFDS (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.