Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPRY) After Its Latest Results
ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPRY) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.3% to US$5.65 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 28% toUS$0.63 per share. Revenues of US$34m did beat expectations by 7.5%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ARS Pharmaceuticals from four analysts is for revenues of US$132.3m in 2026. If met, it would imply a meaningful 13% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 16% from last year to US$1.83. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$139.8m and US$1.78 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts are negative in this update. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a modest increase to to its losses per share forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for ARS Pharmaceuticals
The consensus price target fell 13% to US$23.25, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ARS Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$30.00 and the most bearish at US$17.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that ARS Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 28% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 87% p.a. growth over the last three years. Compare this to the 538 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while ARS Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of ARS Pharmaceuticals' future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ARS Pharmaceuticals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple ARS Pharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that ARS Pharmaceuticals is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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