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    Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) Is Up 8.8% After Swinging To A$1.08b Net Loss – Has The Bull Case Changed?

    Simply Wall St·08/16/2026 13:16:39
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    • Treasury Wine Estates reported full-year results for the year ended 30 June 2026, with sales falling to A$2,626 million from A$2,990.1 million and a net loss of A$1,077.8 million replacing last year’s A$436.9 million net income.
    • This swing from earnings per share of A$0.538 to a loss of A$1.334 per share highlights a sharp deterioration in profitability and business momentum.
    • We’ll now examine how this large full-year net loss and weaker sales trend affect Treasury Wine Estates’ existing investment narrative.

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    Treasury Wine Estates Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Treasury Wine Estates today, you need to believe its focus on premium and luxury brands can still translate into resilient cash flows despite a very weak year. The swing to a A$1,077.8 million net loss and softer sales challenges that view in the short term, and puts more weight on how quickly management can stabilise volumes and margins. The biggest near term risk now is that elevated inventory and discounting pressures become entrenched in key markets of China and the U.S.

    The recent earnings guidance given on 3 June 2026 now looks harder to reconcile with the full year result. Management had pointed to A$480 million to A$490 million of EBIT in FY26 and at least similar levels in FY27, alongside a planned reduction of Penfolds inventory in China by around 150,000 cases. After such a steep swing into loss, investors may focus more closely on how realistic those targets are and how much flexibility there is in the cost base if demand remains soft...

    Read the full narrative on Treasury Wine Estates (it's free!)

    Treasury Wine Estates' narrative projects A$3.3 billion revenue and A$605.8 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.6% yearly revenue growth and about A$168.9 million earnings increase from A$436.9 million today.

    Uncover how Treasury Wine Estates' forecasts yield a A$5.72 fair value, a 3% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ASX:TWE 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ASX:TWE 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Before this result, the most optimistic analysts were assuming revenue of about A$3.6 billion and earnings of roughly A$665 million by 2028, which looks very different to today.

    Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Treasury Wine Estates - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

    Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

    • A great starting point for your Treasury Wine Estates research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Treasury Wine Estates research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Treasury Wine Estates' overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.