Delta Air Lines (DAL) Could Be 41% Overvalued As Earnings Growth Draws Fresh Attention
Delta Air Lines (DAL) heads into its next earnings release with expectations for 28.07% year-over-year EPS growth and a projected 6.02% revenue increase, placing the stock firmly in focus for near-term results.
See our latest analysis for Delta Air Lines.
Despite a recent pullback, with a 1-day share price return of -2.15% and a 7-day share price return of -2.18%, Delta Air Lines has seen a 30-day share price return of 6.15% and a 90-day share price return of 27.21%. Its 1-year total shareholder return of 49.94% and 5-year total shareholder return of 142.82% point to strong long term compounding as investors weigh the earnings outlook against a mixed valuation picture.
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After a 27.21% move over 90 days and a strong 1 year record, Delta Air Lines now sits at a potential crossroads. Is it worth stepping in at US$89.35, or does waiting for a cheaper entry make more sense?
Most Popular Narrative: 41.4% Overvalued
The most followed narrative for Delta Air Lines puts fair value at $63.21 compared with the recent close at $89.35, which sets up a clear valuation gap for investors to weigh.
Atlanta's home airline still shines bright, and indeed brighter than most in a notorious low-margin, low-profit industry. In its Q2 trading update, Delta once again trounced analysts' expectations both top and bottom line, yet there's a snag: The legacy carrier comes from all-time high profitability. Hence, the risk distribution is skewed to the downside as long as there's no final and reliable re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Want to understand why this narrative calls for a much lower fair value while still assuming healthy profitability and steady margins? The key is in how it treats future growth, profitability levels and the earnings multiple that fits an airline coming off peak conditions.
Result: Fair Value of $63.21 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this overvaluation view on Delta Air Lines could be challenged if travel demand holds firmer than expected or if geopolitical risks, such as the Strait of Hormuz, ease.
Find out about the key risks to this Delta Air Lines narrative.
Another View on Delta Air Lines Valuation
While the most popular community narrative sees Delta Air Lines as overvalued around $89, the SWS DCF model presents a different perspective. It puts fair value at $226.27, which suggests the stock trades well below its estimated future cash flow value. Which story do you find more compelling?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Delta Air Lines for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 52 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
With mixed signals on Delta Air Lines and competing valuation stories in play, it makes sense to look at the underlying data yourself and move quickly to form your own stance. To help you weigh both sides in detail, start by reviewing the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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