MLP SE (ETR:MLP) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?
Investors in MLP SE (ETR:MLP) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.5% to close at €8.23 following the release of its first-quarter results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of €315m were in line with what the analysts predicted, MLP surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €0.27 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, MLP's five analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be €1.14b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 8.7% to €0.69. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.13b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.67 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
View our latest analysis for MLP
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €10.76, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic MLP analyst has a price target of €13.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €8.80. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await MLP shareholders.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MLP's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 2.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.0% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.0% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MLP is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around MLP's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for MLP going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for MLP that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.