Cathay Pacific Haitong: PV is in the bottom range, and the trend of rising prices is beginning to show

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that the trend of price increases in the photovoltaic industry chain is beginning to show. According to the Silicon Industry Branch, the price of polysilicon remained unchanged last week. 2.0 glass rose 0.5 yuan to 9.75 yuan/square meter, and 3.2 glass rose 0.75 yuan to 17 yuan/square meter; according to Infolink, 182 silicon wafers rose 0.03 yuan to 0.83 yuan/piece, 182 cells rose 0.02 yuan to 0.29 yuan/W, 201R cells rose 0.02 yuan to 0.28 yuan/W, and 210 cells rose 0.02 yuan to 0.285 yuan/W. The industry's price increase trend is beginning to show. Companies with cost and technical advantages are expected to take the lead in profit point.

Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:

Silicon materials are in the price restructuring stage

The price of silicon remained unchanged last week, and there were no transactions in the market. According to the Silicon Industry Branch, the wait-and-see trend in the domestic polysilicon market continued last week. All parties are observing the effects of industry regulations and the operation of the industrial chain, and awaiting the gradual formation of a new transaction consensus. The bank believes that the current price is far below the cost range of high-quality production capacity, which is not conducive to achieving survival of the fittest in the industry. Irrational competition cannot continue for a long time. Subsequent regulatory enforcement will drive price improvement, and the upward trend from the bottom is clear.

Battery prices are generally rising

Cell prices generally rose last week. The market price promotion atmosphere is quite strong, and the center of transaction prices is moving upward. According to SMM, the overall production schedule for August has shrunk slightly compared to July, inventories are also falling, and the rise in silver prices is also an important influencing factor. The bank believes that domestic demand is expected to improve marginally in the fourth quarter, overseas demand is also strongly supported, and prices are expected to be further transmitted after component demand improves.

The photovoltaic sector is at a historically low level and is worth focusing on

The bank believes that the photovoltaic sector has undergone relatively thorough adjustments and is at an overall low level. Currently, prices have seen signs of increase, and the supply and demand side continues to improve marginally. As policies and performance inflection points approach, the PV industry's valuation is also expected to improve. The current position is at the bottom of history and is worth focusing on.

Risk Alerts

Risk of industry policy fluctuations; risk of increased competition; risk of new technology substitution; risk of product price fluctuations.