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    CITIC Construction Investment: The cumulative sales volume of nine European countries reached a new high in July, optimistic about the overseas supply chain of domestic and midstream lithium batteries and materials

    Zhitongcaijing·08/17/2026 08:33:13
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    The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that Germany and Sweden will restart electric vehicle subsidies in 2026, and Spain will replace the “MOVES III Plan” with a new “Auto+” plan. The policy side of Britain, France and other countries continued to increase sales to the bottom of 26 years. Sales in Britain, France, and Germany increased significantly under policy stimulation, and sales all exceeded expectations year on year. Considering that the nine European countries will sell 5.4 million new energy vehicles from January to July 2026, or +37.0% over the same period last year. + vehicle, year-over-year + 35% The bank is optimistic about the domestic and midstream lithium batteries and overseas supply chains for materials.

    CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

    Core ideas

    Nine European countries sold 315,600 units of tram units in July, +41%/-22%, penetration rate 37.6%, same/month over month +9.6pct/-0.1pct. Mainly, maintaining a high year-on-year high in July, mainly maintained a 40% + year-on-year increase driven by 26-year subsidies from the three countries of England, France, and Germany, contributing 80% + year-on-year increase. Among them, France restarted the third phase of the ecological car purchase subsidy, reaching a record high of +85% over the same period. By country, France's sales volume was +85% year over year, and the restart of the third phase of the ecological car purchase subsidy in July led to a high increase in BEV sales; Germany restarted car purchase subsidies in July, +44% year over year; the UK subsidy policy continued to be promoted, +40% year on year in July; Portugal restarted the second phase of purchase subsidies, and the penetration rate increased 5.7 pct to 48.5% month on month in July; Italy's sales volume was +37% year over year.

    From January to July 2026, nine European countries sold 2.182,600 new energy vehicles, +37.0% year on year. The bank expects European tram sales to sell 5.4 million+ units in '26, +35%

    In July 2026, nine countries sold 315,600 trains, +41% year over year, -22% month on month, penetration rate 37.6%, +9.6 pct year on year, and -0.1 pct month on month. In July, sales in the nine countries maintained a high level of 40% + year over year, mainly driven by 26 subsidies from Britain, France, and Germany. The three countries contributed a total of 80% + year-on-year increase. Among them, France launched three ecological car purchase subsidies, which reached a record high of +85% over the same period last year. From January to July 2026, nine European countries sold a cumulative total of 2.182,600 vehicles, cumulative year-on-year +37%, penetration rate 37.7%, and +9.6pct year-on-year. By country:

    1) France: July sales volume was 51,900, +85% year over year, -25% month over month, penetration rate of 40.9%, and +4.5 pct month over month. The high year-on-year ratio was mainly due to the low base for the same period + the third phase of the ecological car purchase subsidy was restarted in July, which was strongly driven by BEVs +127% year over year.

    2) Germany: July sales volume was 109,200, +44% YoY, -6% month-on-month, penetration rate 40.7%, +1.5pct month-on-month. The year-on-year increase was mainly driven by the restart of car purchase subsidies in '26, and the base for the same period was lower.

    3) UK: Sales volume in July was 66,500, +40% YoY, -27% month-on-month, penetration rate 42.5%, -0.1 pct month-on-month. The subsidy policy continued to be promoted. In December '25, the government expanded the scale of direct subsidy funding for car purchases, gradually increasing over 26 years.

    4) Portugal: Sales volume in July was 0.88,000, +31% YoY, -19% month-on-month, penetration rate 48.5%, and +5.7pct month-on-month. The year-on-year growth rate was significant, mainly driven by the restart of the second-phase zero-emission vehicle purchase subsidy (total budget of 10 million euros).

    5) Spain: July sales volume was 252,000, +20% year-on-year, -15% month-on-month, penetration rate of 24.7%, and +1.5pct month-on-month. The year-on-year growth rate declined somewhat from the beginning of the year. The main reason is that the government has restarted subsidies since April '25 (MOVESIII), and the base for the same period is high.

    6) Norway: Sales volume in July was 0.94 million, +0.5% year over month, and penetration rate of 98.2%. The year-on-month growth rate was weak. The year-on-month growth rate was weak since '26, mainly due to the reduction of tax exemptions for electric vehicles in '26 and the beginning of levy of value-added tax on some mid-range models. The impact of the July vacation season declined significantly from month to month.

    7) Sweden: July sales volume was 12,400, +13% YoY, -40% month-on-month, penetration rate 66.4%, and -2.5pct month-on-month. Sales increased steadily, and the government restarted electric vehicle purchase subsidies in 26—32 to maintain a high penetration rate.

    8) Denmark: Sales volume in July was 11,700, +21% YoY, -32% month-on-month, penetration rate 80.3%, +0.8pct month-on-month. There was a sales rush effect in '26. Buying BEVs this year maintains a tax benefit of 40% of the benchmark tax, and the tax rate is expected to gradually increase starting in '27.

    9) Italy: July sales volume was 205,000, +37% year over year, -33% month over month, penetration rate 16.4%, and -4.3 pct month on month. The year-on-year growth slowdown was mainly due to the expiration of the super subsidy program in June.

    National policy side

    1) France: The third phase of the ecological car purchase subsidy will restart in July 2026. Low income/middle income/other families can receive up to 5,700 euros/4,700 euros/3,500 euros in bicycle purchase subsidies.

    2) Germany: Restart the latest electric vehicle subsidy policy in 2026, with a total budget of 3 billion euros. The plan is to continue until 2029. The subsidy for pure electric vehicles is 3,000-6,000 euros, and the subsidy for mixed/extended range vehicles is 1,500-4,500 euros.

    3) United Kingdom: Direct vehicle purchase subsidies of up to £3,750 are provided for new eligible electric vehicles that cost less than £37,000 and are expected to continue until the 2029 fiscal year.

    4) Italy: The PNRR “Supercar Subsidy Program” for small and micro enterprises ended on June 30, and July is no longer in the subsidy window.

    5) Portugal: On June 11, an additional 10 million euros were added to restart the second phase of the electric vehicle purchase subsidy. The application window is still open in July, and the application deadline is July 27 or the budget is exhausted.

    Tesla impact analysis

    1) In July, Tesla sales in nine countries totaled 4,230 vehicles, -31.4% year on year, -89.7% month on month; market share 1.3%, -1.4 pct year on year, -8.8 pct month on month. Car companies other than Tesla sold 311,400 vehicles in nine countries, +43.1% year over year and -14.2% month over month.

    2) In July, Tesla's sales volume in various countries varied year on year, with sales in France and Denmark rising year on year, respectively, +85.8%/+51.6%; sales volume in Germany/UK/Sweden/Portugal/Italy/Spain/Norway declined year on year, respectively, by -66.9%/-48.1%/-68.7%/-77.0%/-81.0%/-97.1%, mainly affected by the overdraft effect caused by seasonal delivery rhythm fluctuations and 26Q2 final impulse rush.