The US dollar fell to a three-month low. The previous series of weak US economic data caused investors to lower their expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The US dollar spot index fell for the third consecutive trading day, hitting its lowest level since May 15. Currently, the market indicates that the probability that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month has dropped to one-third, down from about 75% at the end of July. The July employment data previously released by the US was poor, inflation was moderate, and retail sales data were unexpectedly weak. However, there are few major data this week that can trigger a sharp breakthrough in the US dollar. Friday's global purchasing managers' index may be the next substantial test. Elias Haddad, global head of market strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said that if US economic data improves and strengthens America's growth advantage, it may boost the dollar. However, the market currently expects a further rate hike of only about 36 basis points during this austerity cycle, and the options market indicates that the US dollar will face greater pressure in the short term. The 1-month option turned bearish on the US dollar for the first time since the end of February, and longer-term options are still bullish.

The US dollar fell to a three-month low. The previous series of weak US economic data caused investors to lower their expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The US dollar spot index fell for the third consecutive trading day, hitting its lowest level since May 15. Currently, the market indicates that the probability that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month has dropped to one-third, down from about 75% at the end of July. The July employment data previously released by the US was poor, inflation was moderate, and retail sales data were unexpectedly weak. However, there are few major data this week that can trigger a sharp breakthrough in the US dollar. Friday's global purchasing managers' index may be the next substantial test. Elias Haddad, global head of market strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said that if US economic data improves and strengthens America's growth advantage, it may boost the dollar. However, the market currently expects a further rate hike of only about 36 basis points during this austerity cycle, and the options market indicates that the US dollar will face greater pressure in the short term. The 1-month option turned bearish on the US dollar for the first time since the end of February, and longer-term options are still bullish.