US stock outlook | Futures of the three major stock indexes had mixed ups and downs, and chip and optical communications stocks generally rose before the market, and US stocks welcomed the “retail earnings week”

Pre-market market trends

1. Before the US stock market on August 17 (Monday), futures for the three major US stock indexes had mixed ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures were down 0.16%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.12%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.52%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.10%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.21%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.13%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.30%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil rose 0.59% to $81.95 per barrel. Brent crude rose 0.80% to $89.23 per barrel.

Market news

US stocks welcome “Retail Earnings Week”: Walmart (WMT.US) takes the lead, and the market is betting that the probability of the Federal Reserve remaining on hold in September is over 70%. After a week full of concerns about inflation and questions about the Federal Reserve's next move, investors have ushered in a relatively calm five-day cycle. Financial reports from large supermarkets and other major retailers, as well as extensive manufacturing data, will be the focus of the market. Thursday will usher in the centralized release of financial reports from major supermarkets. Walmart (WMT.US), ROST.US (ROST.US), and Deere (DE.US) will all announce quarterly results, followed by BJ Wholesale Club (BJ.US) on Friday. In terms of economic data, manufacturing indicators will be a top priority. The US will release industrial output and manufacturing output data on Tuesday, and S&P's global US manufacturing PMI readings will be released on Friday. Additionally, the calendar also includes Tuesday's new home commencement data, which is expected to show a sharp downward trend, as well as the minutes of the last US Federal Bank meeting released on Wednesday.

Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has almost come to a standstill, and Iran says it is drawing up a sea route plan with Oman. As the 60-day cease-fire agreement between the US and Iran expires on Monday, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz almost came to a standstill throughout the weekend. Currently, the two sides have yet to begin formal negotiations, and there is no sign of reaching a new agreement. According to data from the shipping data agency Kpler (Kpler), only 5 cargo ships passed through this global energy transportation channel last Saturday, and there were no registered transit ships last Sunday; in comparison, 31 ships crossed the strait the previous weekend. According to the latest reports, on August 17, local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagae said that Iran is carefully drafting a sea route plan with Oman. Bagae said that due to the complicated security situation caused by the actions of the US and Israel, as well as the intervention and obstruction of many relevant parties and disruptive factors, the drafting of a maritime route plan with Oman took a long time. Although Iran and Iran continue to advance airline negotiations, Iran has made it clear many times that whether to reopen this strategic waterway depends on the US side being able to fulfill its obligations under the Memorandum of Understanding.

Goldman Sachs: The market's bets on the Fed's policy are still too hawkish, and the rate hike in September is “very unlikely”. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a client report that due to weak US retail sales data, disappointing employment data, and slowing inflation data, it is “very unlikely” that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the September meeting. “According to our basic economic forecasts, inflation news is more likely to improve further over time rather than worsen again,” Hatzius said. We still think the market's pricing of federal funds rates is too hawkish.” According to the data, traders have postponed their expectations of the Fed's next rate hike of 25 basis points until January next year, while a week ago they fully anticipated that the Fed would raise interest rates in December. Goldman Sachs said that although hawkish sentiment in the market has abated, there is still room for decline in interest rate hikes expectations. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs pointed out that the US Treasury yield curve may become steeper due to improved inflation, lower interest rate hike premiums, and negative budget news.

The AI bull market has entered the “era of cash out”! Big Ma and Little Mozi look at S&P's 8,000 points, and the violent counterattack between semiconductors and the Korean stock market verifies that “profit owners are rising.” Since August, against the backdrop of a massive rebound in the semiconductor sector and technology stocks dominated by AI computing power infrastructure themes, the recent sharp volatility in the global stock market has rapidly subsided. Wall Street's two major financial giants, Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan Chase, have also recently tacitly released a research report stating that the primary driving force driving the S&P 500's upward trend is shifting from valuation expansion to profit improvement and AI commercialization. Last week, J.P. Morgan raised its target for the end of 2026 from 7,800 points to 8,000 points, and raised the EPS profit trajectory for this year and next two years. Morgan Stanley also previously raised its 2026 target to 8,000 points and the 12-month target to 8,300 points, and made it clear that the increase was mainly due to profit rather than valuation. Currently, at least seven Wall Street institutions expect the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 points by the end of 2026.

Is the US consumer market showing a red light? A number of giant CEOs warned in unison: low-income groups “have bottomed out their money pockets.” Over the years, American consumers have been the mainstay of economic resilience. Even as inflation is high, borrowing costs rise, and daily spending support continues to rise, household budgets are struggling to support them. Recently, however, the heads of many leading companies have spoken out intensively, warning that this consumption momentum may be approaching a tipping point. For example, McDonald's CEO Chris Kempchinski pointed out that consumers are under pressure and mentioned “increased anxiety.” Home appliance giant Whirlpool CEO Mark Bitzer also painted a picture of a sharp contraction in demand for major appliances. Multiple macroeconomic data also confirm that the financial pressure on American households is increasing. As of the first quarter of 2026, the outstanding balance of US credit cards reached $1.25 trillion, and the balance of auto loans climbed to $1.69 trillion. Meanwhile, residents' willingness to save continues to decline, and the personal savings rate dropped to only 2.7% in June.

Individual stock news

Chip and optical communications stocks generally rose before the market. Before the US stock market on Monday, as of press release, SanDisk (SNDK.US) rose nearly 5%, SK Hynix (SKHY.US) rose nearly 4%, Micron Technology (MU.US) and Western Digital (WDC.US) rose more than 3%, Seagate (STX.US) rose more than 2%; Intel (INTC.US) and AMD (AMD.US) rose more than 1%. In terms of optical communications stocks, Astera Labs (ALAB.US) rose more than 5%, Coherent (COHR.US), Lumentum (LITE.US), Corning (GLW.US), MRVL.US (MRVL.US), and Credo Technology (CRDO.US) all rose more than 2%, and Nokia (NOK.US) rose more than 1%.

Use diversified financing to refute the AI bubble! From 100 year bonds to Australian dollar debt debut, Google (GOOGL.US) uses global financing to support AI ambitions. At a time when American technology companies are pouring into the corporate credit market to finance increasingly expanding AI computing power infrastructure investments through debt, Google is also further broadening its international debt financing channels. According to reports, Google has hired a number of large commercial banks to prepare for its possible first Australian dollar-denominated corporate bond issuance. The company may issue bonds covering 4 types of maturities, the longest of which can be up to 20 years. Notably, since this year, Google has expanded its financing into a true global capital market network: it issued 5.5 billion pounds (about 7.53 billion US dollars) and 3,055 billion Swiss francs (about 3.98 billion US dollars) bonds in February, including even 100-year bonds rare in the technology industry since 1997. Shortly thereafter, the company also issued 9 billion euros (about 10.6 billion US dollars), 8.5 billion Canadian dollars (about 6.2 billion US dollars), and a record number of 576.5 billion yen (about 3.6 billion US dollars) of bonds for foreign companies — at least US$31.9 billion in non-dollar debt financing outside the US since 2026, according to the exchange rate at the time of issuance.

A “turnaround battle” or a “money burning pit”? Intel (INTC.US) wants to return to the storage market, betting on a new architecture based on the AI era. On August 11, local time, while attending a podcast program, Chen Liwu revealed that a new type of storage architecture that was once thought of as a “commercialization business” has now become a strategically important field, and it is also one of his key projects. He also said that the storage industry is in a critical period of innovation and hinted that Intel is exploring solutions to stack storage on top of CPUs. For investors, Intel's signal of a possible return to the storage market is directly linked to the company's core investment logic of refocusing its business portfolio and rebuilding trust in its role in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Reintegrating the storage business into the product portfolio may help Intel achieve its goal of providing a more complete platform for emerging AI workloads, beyond simply providing CPU and foundry production capacity. But at the same time, it also increases one of the risks in the current investment logic. Intel's complex organizational structure and already high operating expenses and capital expenses have always been a core issue of market concern. Reentering the capital-intensive business field of memory chips will also test the extent to which Intel can actually simplify its business.

Key economic data and event forecasts

At 20:30 Beijing time, the US New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for August

Performance Forecast

Tuesday morning: BHP Billiton (BHP.US), Fabrinet (FN.US)

Tuesday pre-market: Home Depot (HD.US), Baidu (BIDU.US), iQiyi (IQ.US), My Little Pony Zhixing (PONY.US), Century Connect (VNET.US), Youke United (UCL.US)