Cui Dongshu: Automobile consumption fell 17% year on year in July, and the task of steady industry growth is arduous

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Association, published an article stating that in January-July 2026, automobile consumption fell 13.2% year on year, and car consumption fell 17% year on year in July. After the base figure continued to rise, this year's decline was significant. The high base pressure in March and June 2025 was the greatest. Under base pressure in July, automobile retail sales stabilized month-on-month, and the impact of high oil prices on consumption improved. Currently, although we are trying our best to stabilize international oil prices, the impact of high oil prices on the stability of the industrial chain supply chain and consumer demand is still quite obvious. Problems such as high prices, a sharp rise in clothing and food expenses, insufficient effective demand, and lack of market vitality still exist, and the task of steady industry growth is still arduous.

From January to July 2026, automobile production was 17.61 million units, down 3% year on year; new energy vehicle production was 8.95 million units, up 10% year on year, penetration rate 51%; fuel vehicle production was 8.67 million units, down 14% year on year. In July 2026, automobile production was 2.53 million units, the same as the previous year; production of new energy vehicles was 1.55 million units, up 30% year on year, penetration rate 61%; fuel vehicle production was 980,000 units, down 27% year on year.

From January to July 2026, fixed asset investment in the automotive industry fell 5.3% year on year, and is still higher than the average of all industries of -6.7%. Recently, investment pressure has been high in the tertiary sector. In particular, investment in public infrastructure, education, culture, and health care has declined sharply.

Cui Dongshu said that since the 2026 trade-in passenger car subsidies were far lower than commercial vehicles, commercial vehicle subsidies contributed particularly well to the growth of NEV retail sales, and NEV passenger vehicles plummeted. Currently, there is a lot of pressure on passenger car consumption. It is expected that there will be a long-term strong continuation policy in the future, reducing personal taxes for car buyers, promoting new energy vehicles going to the countryside, setting standards for economical electric vehicles, optimizing C7 economy electric vehicle driver license applications, greater tax concessions for compliant pure electric vehicles with a battery life of less than 200 kilometers, and encouraging marriage and childbearing car purchases to boost economic growth.

1. Automobile consumption is declining relatively steadily

Since the decline in the property market in 2021, automobile consumption has risen from 3.94 trillion yuan in 2020 to 5.03 trillion yuan in 2024, breaking away from the passive situation of hovering around 3.9 trillion yuan for 3 consecutive years in 2018-2020. Since the decline in real estate favors consumption, the problem of investment squeezing consumption has improved. Currently, the problem of poor consumption has improved slightly.

From January to July 2026, automobile consumption fell 13.2% year on year, and automobile consumption fell 17% year on year in July. After the base figure continued to rise, this year's decline was significant. High base pressure was greatest in March and June 2025. Under base pressure in July, automobile retail sales stabilized month-on-month, and the impact of high oil prices on consumption improved.

2. Automobile production started low in 2026

In July, the output of 279 out of 626 products in large-scale industries increased year-on-year. Among them, there were 116.46 million tons of steel, down 4.1% year on year; 126.71 million tons of cement, down 11.6%; 6.97 million tons of ten non-ferrous metals, up 2.5%; 3.48 million tons of ethylene, up 0.1%; 2,529,000 vehicles, down 0.1%, of which cars fell 17% and 1.55 million new energy vehicles, up 29.9%; power generation capacity was 943.9 billion kilowatt-hours, down 0.1%; crude oil processing volume was 53.11 million tons, down 15.8%.

3. Automobile value added performance was good in 2026

The value added of the automobile industry increased by 6.6% in 2020; the growth rate hovered at the level of 5.5% in 2021; the value added value of automobiles in 2022 was 6.3%, which was strong; the value added of the automobile industry increased by 13% in 2023, achieving super growth; the value added of 9.1% of automobiles increased relatively well in 2024; and the value added of the automobile industry increased by 11.5% in 2025.

In July, the value added of large-scale industries actually increased by 4.5% year-on-year. Among them, the value added of the automobile industry increased by 8.7% in July, and the automobile industry's production performance was very strong.

From January to July, the value added of large-scale industries increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and automobiles increased by 7.2%.

4. The utilization rate of automobile production capacity is relatively stable

In 2020-2024, the national industrial capacity utilization rate remained within a small fluctuation range of 72.4 to 74.6. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the utilization rate of industrial capacity above the national scale was 76.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year, and 1.1 percentage points higher than in the third quarter. In 2025, the utilization rate of industrial capacity above the national scale was 74.4%. By major industries, the automobile industry's capacity utilization rate in 2025 was 73.2%, which is relatively low.

In the first quarter of 2026, the automobile industry's capacity utilization rate was 70.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from last year; in the second quarter of 2026, the automobile industry's capacity utilization rate was 70.8%, down 0.5 percentage points from last year.

5. The specific situation of automobile production

The average daily production of new energy vehicles in July 2026 was 50,000, an increase of 29.9% over the previous year. Due to the high base of new energy cars last year, production fluctuated greatly this year. Production in the first half of 2025 was better for small and micro electric vehicles. Demand is also strong in the middle and low end, so the sales growth rate is slightly lower than the sales growth rate. The sharp reduction in subsidies this year had a big impact, but commercial vehicle subsidies were high, and the market skyrocketed.

By product, in July 2026, the average number of cars per day was 82,000, a decrease of 0.1%. Considering the increase in the January-July 2025 base and the contraction of policy subsidies in 2026, the growth rate from January to July this year was weak.

In 2022, automobile production was 27.48 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 3%; production of new energy vehicles was 7.22 million, an increase of 98%, with a penetration rate of 26%; production of fuel vehicles was 2.06 million units, a decrease of 11%.

In 2023, automobile production was 30.11 million units, up 9% year on year; new energy vehicle production was 9.44 million units, up 30% year on year, penetration rate 31%; fuel vehicle production was 20.67 million units, up 2% year on year.

In 2024, automobile production was 31.56 million units, up 5% year on year; new energy vehicle production was 13.17 million units, up 39% year on year, penetration rate 42%; fuel vehicle production was 18.39 million units, down 11%.

In 2025, automobile production was 34.78 million units, up 10% year on year; new energy vehicle production was 16.52 million units, up 25% year on year, penetration rate 48%; fuel vehicle production was 18.25 million units, down 1% year on year.

From January to July 2026, automobile production was 17.61 million units, down 3% year on year; new energy vehicle production was 8.95 million units, up 10% year on year, penetration rate 51%; fuel vehicle production was 8.67 million units, down 14% year on year.

In July 2026, automobile production was 2.53 million units, the same as the previous year; production of new energy vehicles was 1.55 million units, up 30% year on year, penetration rate 61%; fuel vehicle production was 980,000 units, down 27% year on year.

6. Automobile investment declined slightly in 2026

From January to July, the country's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 26,32.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. Investment pressure is high in the tertiary sector, where investment in public infrastructure, education, culture, and health has declined sharply.

From January to July 2026, fixed asset investment in the automotive industry fell 5.3% year on year, and is still higher than the average of all industries of -6.7%.

7. There has been a slight improvement in the real estate consumption squeeze

From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 45.21 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%; of these, the residential sales area decreased by 12.7%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 4271.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.1%; of these, residential sales fell 13.2%.

Land concession revenue in 2021 was 8705.1 billion yuan, accounting for 48% of real estate sales; in 2023, land concession revenue was 579.6 billion yuan, accounting for 50% of real estate sales; in 2024, land concession revenue was 4869.9 billion yuan, accounting for 50% of house sales revenue, and real estate contributed greatly to local finance. The 2025 land sales revenue data still accounts for 49% of housing prices.

Currently, the relationship between automobile sales and real estate sales in January-July 2026 is a 30-square-meter house/1 vehicle, and the unreasonable comparison of sales has improved. Although motorhomes have improved compared to the 70-square-meter house/1 car at their peak in 2020, the pressure on debt in the early period and the pressure on the current 10,000 yuan property market are still squeezing consumption, causing demand in the car market to be sluggish due to debt pressure.

The wealth effect of the property market has had a certain effect on boosting demand for high-end cars. The recent decline in residents' property market debt pressure and weakening demand for home purchases have also brought certain potential benefits to improving car market consumption.

8. Car market consumption requires continuous policy support

Since the decline in the property market in 2021, automobile consumption has risen from 3.94 trillion yuan in 2020 to 4.98 trillion yuan in 2025, breaking away from the passive situation of hovering around 3.9 trillion yuan for 3 consecutive years in 2018-2020. As the decline in real estate favors consumption, the problem of investment in buying a house squeezes consumption has improved. In 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 5012.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% over the previous year. Among them, automobile consumption was 4978.9 billion yuan, down 2% year on year; retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 45141.3 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4%.

The cost of living has risen sharply, consumption of clothing and food is growing too fast, and consumption of car purchases is being seriously squeezed by food and clothing. Automobile market consumption fell 13% from January to July 2026. Currently, the problem of poor consumption still needs to be improved.

From January to July 2026, total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 28774.4 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% over the previous year. Among them, automobile consumption was 226.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13%; retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 26514.2 billion yuan, an increase of 2.7%. In July, total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 390.2.2 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6% over the previous year. Among them, automobile consumption was 313 billion yuan, down 17% year on year; retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 3589.2 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%.

Automobile consumption in the first half of 2026 presented a complex situation of “policy continuation, market fragmentation, and pressure on demand”. The trade-in policy continues to gain strength, but due to factors such as the accelerated contraction of fuel vehicles, price wars diluting consumer confidence, and the downturn in the low-end market, the total retail volume is still declining. The steady increase in consumption of petroleum products reflects the fact that residents' demand for travel is still rigid, and weak automobile consumption is more indicative of a marginal weakening of the will to spend on durable goods and disposable income.