Goldman Sachs (GS.US): The probability of an interest rate hike in September is extremely low, and Bitcoin welcomes a favorable window

According to Woofun AI, Goldman Sachs (GS.US) has determined that the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September is extremely low. This macroeconomic policy expectation opens a potentially favorable window for risky assets such as Bitcoin.

The underlying reason is that weak US retail sales data, worsening employment conditions, and easing inflationary pressure have all weakened the need for austerity. Goldman Sachs (GS.US) chief economist Jan Hazius predicts that inflation is more likely to continue to decline for the rest of the year. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, futures traders have set a low probability of interest rate hikes at the September meeting. If the austerity cycle is suspended, historical experience shows that riskier investment types will benefit.

Notably, since the beginning of July, the Bitcoin price has been anchored in the $62,000-$66,000 range and fluctuated around $63,500 after the report was published. Stable monetary policy reduced the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable assets and encouraged capital to flow into high-growth assets such as cryptocurrencies. Stable borrowing costs also supported stock valuations, and stock performance was significantly correlated with cryptocurrency trends.

However, geopolitical tensions and changes in regulatory policies remain key variables. The Federal Reserve insists that it is based on data. If inflation or employment data fluctuates unexpectedly, it may reverse loose expectations due to a slowdown in economic growth. Investors need to pay close attention to the impact of macro factors on sentiment and fully assess uncertainty before adjusting their portfolios.