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    BHP (ASX:BHP) Shares Drift As Copper Growth Narrative Meets Execution Doubts

    Simply Wall St·08/18/2026 10:25:58
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    BHP Group stock went into this earnings print priced for optimism, trading at a P/E of 23.4x against a lower Australian metals and mining average, and yet the share price eased slightly with a 7 day return that slipped about 0.1%. The headline from the results is simple: profitability is steady rather than spectacular, with trailing net margin at 16.6% and only a modest dip from 17.6%, while the current share price of A$63.85 still sits above a discounted cash flow estimate of A$52.90.

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    FY 2026 Earnings Summary

    • Revenue FY 2026: US$59,274 million vs. FY 2025 US$51,262 million (reported higher year on year)
    • Net Income FY 2026 (excluding extra items): US$9,833 million vs. FY 2025 US$9,019 million (reported higher year on year)
    • Basic EPS FY 2026: US$1.936 vs. FY 2025 US$1.778 (reported higher year on year)
    • Coal Production FY 2026: 34,046,000 tons vs. FY 2025 33,046,000 tons (reported higher year on year)

    Prefer clear visuals instead of another wall of earnings tables and ratios? Get a full picture of BHP Group with charts that put its valuation in context through the company report for BHP Group.

    ASX:BHP Trailing 12-Month Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Aug 2026
    ASX:BHP Trailing 12-Month Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Aug 2026

    BHP Group’s Copper Pivot Starts To Show Its Hand

    The bullish story around BHP Group is that large, low cost iron ore and copper assets plus a bigger push into copper and potash can keep margins solid while shifting earnings toward growth metals. FY26 results go some way to proving that. Underlying profit rose 30% to $13.2b and copper overtook iron ore for the first time, contributing 54% of underlying earnings and $18.19b in operating profit. That directly lines up with the idea that copper becomes the main earnings engine.

    On volumes, the picture is more mixed. FY26 copper output of 1.95 Mt only landed within guidance and was 3% lower year on year, and FY27 guidance of 1.65 to 1.8 Mt points to a softer near term copper production profile. However, environmental approval for the multibillion dollar Escondida expansion and progress at Jansen show that the key long life copper and potash growth projects are moving forward.

    Reveal where the surface looks calm, but the models start to disagree on BHP Group's next inflection points, and see what the street is quietly building into its multi year forecasts with the analyst estimates for BHP Group.

    BHP Bear Concerns On Execution Get Fresh Support

    The bearish view on BHP Group is that big ticket growth projects and copper dependence carry real execution and timing risk that could eat into returns. FY26 results give that view some backing. Copper is now 54% of underlying earnings, yet copper production slipped 3% to 1.95 Mt and FY27 guidance is lower again at 1.65 to 1.8 Mt. That is a clear miss versus the growth narrative and suggests a gap between the copper story and near term volumes.

    On projects, Escondida’s environmental approval and Jansen logistics deals show progress, but they sit alongside earlier cost increases and an impairment at Jansen that critics flagged as value erosion. Record underlying profit of $13.2b and the highest dividend in four years show the balance sheet can absorb some strain. Even so, the latest print does more to validate concerns about timing and capital discipline than to close the bear case.

    After copper growth delays, a Jansen impairment and an unstable dividend record, review whether these issues signal deeper structural weaknesses in BHP Group when you risk analysis for BHP Group which shows 1 important warning sign.

    Take Control Of Your Next Move

    If BHP Group's mix of steady profitability, copper execution questions and a share price above one estimate of fair value has your attention, register for free with Simply Wall St and add it to a Watchlist to track price against fair value and watch for a more attractive entry point. After you buy or trim a position, keep on top of what truly matters with the Portfolio Command Center that filters out noise and surfaces only the most important developments for your holdings. For longer term conviction, use the Community to see how other investors are interpreting the same numbers and events from different angles. That combination helps you spot hidden catalysts and risks early so you can stay ahead of the market instead of reacting to it late.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.