What Is Drawing Attention To Hilltop Holdings (HTH) Today?
Hilltop Holdings (HTH) has drawn investor attention after recent share price moves, with the stock closing at US$39 on 19 August 2026. You might now be weighing how its fundamentals line up.
See our latest analysis for Hilltop Holdings.
Despite a small 1-day share price decline of 0.84%, Hilltop Holdings has had a firm run, with the year-to-date share price return of 15.04% complementing a 1-year total shareholder return of 21.05%. This pattern suggests that momentum has been building rather than fading.
If you are comparing Hilltop Holdings with other potential opportunities in financials and beyond, this is a useful moment to broaden your search and discover the 21 top founder-led companies
After this strong run in Hilltop Holdings, it is fair to ask whether most of the easy gains are in the rearview mirror. Do the current fundamentals still leave meaningful upside on the table at US$39?
Most Popular Narrative: 2% Undervalued
The most followed narrative puts Hilltop Holdings' fair value at about $39.67, which is slightly above the recent $39 close. That small gap is built on a detailed view of future earnings, margins, and share count.
Analysts are assuming Hilltop Holdings's revenue will grow by 1.1% annually over the next 3 years. Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 12.8% today to 8.3% in 3 years time.
Want to see what sits under that near flat fair value call? The narrative leans on modest revenue growth, thinner margins, and a very specific earnings path. The share count assumptions also play a key role.
Result: Fair Value of $39.67 (ABOUT RIGHT)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the Hilltop Holdings narrative could be knocked off course if mortgage origination remains under pressure or if competition in core Texas markets continues to squeeze margins.
Find out about the key risks to this Hilltop Holdings narrative.
Another View On Hilltop Holdings Valuation
The SWS fair ratio points to a different story for Hilltop Holdings. The stock trades on a P/E of 13.8x, while the fair ratio is 9.1x. That is also above the US Banks industry at 12.1x and peers at 12.4x, which signals a valuation premium that could cut both ways for investors.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
With mixed signals on valuation and sentiment around Hilltop Holdings, you may want to review the data quickly and decide where you stand. To weigh both the potential upside and the areas of concern in one place, start with the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Hilltop Holdings?
If you stop at Hilltop Holdings, you risk missing other stocks that could fit your goals just as well. Use the Simply Wall St screener to widen your opportunity set smartly.
- Target potential mispricing by scanning for companies that combine quality with value through the 50 high quality undervalued stocks.
- Strengthen your income approach by checking out companies with resilient payouts using the 11 dividend fortresses.
- Prioritise capital protection by focusing on sturdier businesses through the 79 resilient stocks with low risk scores.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com