Goldman Sachs: AIA (01299)'s ASEAN market performance in the second quarter exceeded expectations. Market attention is being updated on the latest sales momentum

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that AIA (01299) distributed an interim report this morning. Goldman Sachs published a report indicating that the value of Hong Kong's new business (VONB) in the first half of the year was lower than expected, which meant that the growth rate in the second quarter would be only in single digits, significantly slower than in the first quarter (21% increase). AIA's performance in the first half of the year was slightly lower than expected, mainly affected by the weak contribution of the Hong Kong market in the second quarter, while the performance of the ASEAN market (Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia) exceeded expectations.

However, Goldman Sachs pointed out that this was mainly due to the high mainland tourist business base, while the mainland China business performed well. Regarding the mainland tourist business, the bank is pleased to see the value of the new business increase in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, with the most significant increase in June. The bank believes that the focus of market attention will still be management's updates to the latest sales momentum.

In addition to new business value, AIA's operating profit (OPAT) for the first half of the year increased 15% year over year, 5% higher than market expectations, mainly due to increased contract margin of service (CSM) releases and lower actual tax rates. In the first half of 2026, operating profit per share (OPAT) increased 18%/13% year-on-year based on actual exchange rate benchmark (AER) /fixed exchange rate benchmark (CER), far exceeding the 2023-2026 growth target (9-11%). After deducting dividends and share repurchases, the company's core intrinsic value (EV) increased by 5% year to date, which means that the basic operating return (annualized) for the first half of 2026 was 18%. Dividend per share (DPS) increased 10% year over year to HK$0.539.

AIA will hold a performance briefing this morning. In addition to the latest sales momentum in Hong Kong, Goldman Sachs will also focus on the following three aspects: 1) growth prospects in mainland China in view of the impact on banking and insurance business sales in the first half of 2026; 2) the latest developments in the ASEAN market; and 3) any updates to the capital regulation plan.