Bitcoin is nearing a “golden cross”! Strategy (MSTR.US) holds 4% of the world's coins, but the risk of financing leverage is hidden behind it
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Bitcoin has recently rebounded strongly, and the price has regained its position as a key long-term technical indicator. The market is focusing on whether it is ending a downward trend that has continued for several months. Meanwhile, the asset structure of the world's largest Bitcoin holder Strategy (MSTR.US) is once again in the spotlight. Although the company currently holds about 840,000 bitcoins, accounting for about 4% of the final Bitcoin supply, its debt, preferred shares, and ongoing financing costs mean that there is a clear difference between Strategy's common stock and direct Bitcoin holdings.
Bitcoin is approaching a “gold cross” and the long-term trend is showing signs of strengthening
Bitcoin recently rose above $71,000. Over the past week, it has accumulated gains of more than 12%, and has broken through the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) again. As the price continues to rebound, Bitcoin is nearing the formation of a “golden cross” that has received much attention in technical analysis.
Currently, Bitcoin's 50-day EMA is around $63,976, and the 200-day EMA is around $69,005. If the 50-day EMA continues to rise and break through the 200-day EMA while the two moving averages maintain the same upward direction, it will form a so-called “golden cross”, which is usually viewed by technical analysts as a sign of increased long-term upward momentum.
The 200-day EMA reflects the average closing price of Bitcoin over the past 200 trading days and is an important indicator for measuring long-term market trends. Continued stability above the 200-day EMA is generally seen as a sign that the market may move from a long-term downtrend to an upward trend.
Notably, Bitcoin has been running below the 200-day EMA since October 2025. At the time, the price of Bitcoin was about 110,000 US dollars. Since then, it has fallen below this key technical indicator for a long time, which also reflects that the market has entered a continuous downward phase.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin formed a gold cross in February 2023, October 2023, October 2024, and April 2025, and the price has risen further since then. However, the golden cross itself is a lagging indicator, and usually only occurs after the price has clearly rebounded, so there is no guarantee that a new round of bull market has begun.
Currently, the biggest risk is that this round of rise may still only be a rebound after a long period of decline. If Bitcoin falls sharply below the 200-day EMA, the judgment that the long-term trend has turned bullish may be challenged.
Strategy holds 840,000 bitcoins, accounting for about 4% of the final supply
As Bitcoin strengthens again, Strategy's huge Bitcoin reserves are also receiving market attention.
According to investor data compiled by Strategy and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as of August 9, Strategy held 840,447 bitcoins, equivalent to about 4% of the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins.
Based on the Bitcoin price of 64,279 US dollars at the time, this batch of bitcoins was worth about 54.02 billion US dollars.
However, for Strategy's common shareholders, the company's holding of $54 billion in bitcoins does not mean that all of these assets can be directly attributed to common shareholders, as there are still a large number of higher-priority debts and preferred shares in Strategy's capital structure.
As of the relevant statistics, Strategy has approximately US$6.754 billion in debt and US$15.239 billion in preferred shares, which together form a priority capital requirement of approximately US$21.99 billion. Although preferred shares are not debts, both creditors and preferred shareholders have a higher payment order in the company's capital structure than common shareholders.
Strategy's net asset exposure dropped significantly after deducting debt and preferred shares
Strategy had approximately $58.67 billion in reserve assets at the time, including Bitcoin and $4.65 billion in reserves. After deducting approximately $21.99 billion in debt and preferred shares, the net reserve value used to support Strategy's common stock is approximately $36.68 billion.
This capital structure also means that the actual Bitcoin value corresponding to Strategy's common shareholders is significantly lower than the figure calculated simply based on the company's Bitcoin holdings.
As of August 10, if you only calculate the number of bitcoins Strategy holds, each Strategy share corresponds to approximately 0.001983 bitcoins, which is worth about $127.46 at the current currency price. However, since the company still has capital requirements that prioritize common shares, such as debt and preferred shares, after deducting these items, the actual Bitcoin net asset value corresponding to Strategy per share fell to about 92.11 US dollars.
At the time, Strategy's stock price was about 97.33 US dollars, which was only about 6% higher than the net asset value of Bitcoin per share described above, and the corresponding net asset value multiple (mNaV) was about 1.06 times. In other words, although Strategy holds large reserves of Bitcoin, the actual premium of Strategy's common stock compared to its net Bitcoin assets is already at a low level after considering the company's debt and preferred share burden.
Strategy has begun selling Bitcoin at an annual financing cost of around $1.7 billion
Strategy's complex capital structure also meant that the company needed to bear ongoing financing costs.
According to relevant data, the company's annual debt interest and preferred stock dividend expenses total about US$1,736 billion. Based on current US dollar reserves of approximately US$4.65 billion, the relevant expenses can be covered for approximately 2.7 years without changing other conditions.
Notably, Strategy has begun selling bitcoins as a means to supplement liquidity.
Since it began accumulating bitcoins in 2020, the company has sold bitcoins for five publicly disclosed periods as of August 20, 2026. In 2022, Strategy sold 704 bitcoins and received about $11.8 million, but only two days later, they repurchased 810.
After entering 2026, the company's sales activity increased markedly. At the end of May, Strategy sold 32 bitcoins, the first since 2022; a total of 3,588 were sold between June 29 and July 5.
Subsequently, the company sold 1,638 bitcoins from July 27 to August 2, receiving approximately US$104.73 million; further sold 1,690 bitcoins from August 3 to 9, receiving approximately US$108.6 million, with an average sale price of about US$64,262.
According to SEC documents, the relevant funds were used to pay dividends on preferred shares and to supplement US dollar reserves. Strategy has also approved a “Bitcoin Monetization Plan” to allow the company to continue to sell some bitcoins in the future to meet liquidity requirements.
This means Strategy's simple market impression of “just buy, don't sell” in the past is changing.
Strategy is not equivalent to potentially amplifying losses when Bitcoin falls
Strategy's capital structure can amplify common shareholders' asset exposure when Bitcoin rises, but it may also amplify risk when Bitcoin falls.
Relevant estimates show that Strategy's current Bitcoin reserves have an amplification effect of about 1.47 times compared to the net reserve value.
According to sensitivity analysis, while other conditions remain unchanged, if the price of Bitcoin is 64,279 US dollars, Strategy's corresponding net reserve value is about 92.11 US dollars; if Bitcoin falls to 40,000 US dollars, this value may drop to 40.87 US dollars; conversely, if Bitcoin rises to 100,000 US dollars, it may rise to 167.49 US dollars.
The above figures are only estimates when Bitcoin holdings, cash, debt, preferred shares, and the number of diluted shares remain the same. They are not predictions of Strategy's future stock price.
Strategy's financing model essentially expands Bitcoin exposure through various capital instruments such as common shares, preferred shares, and debt. When the market environment is favorable, this model can increase Bitcoin exposure per share, but adding preferred shares and debt will also increase common shareholders' previous priority claims, and continuing to issue common shares when valuations are unfavorable may also cause equity dilution.
Therefore, although Strategy currently controls about 4% of the final Bitcoin supply, investing in Strategy is not the same type of investment as holding Bitcoin directly. Strategy shareholders hold a listed company with huge Bitcoin reserves and also bears debt, preferred stock dividends, financing costs, potential equity dilution, and capital allocation risks.
As far as Bitcoin itself is concerned, whether it can continue to stabilize the 200-day EMA and eventually form a “golden cross” where the 50-day EMA crosses the 200-day EMA will be an important technical signal to determine whether this round of rebound can further evolve into a long-term trend reversal.