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    How Buybacks, Higher Dividends And Upgraded Guidance At Inpex (TSE:1605) Has Changed Its Investment Story

    Simply Wall St·08/20/2026 22:22:09
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    • In August 2026, Inpex Corporation announced a share repurchase program of up to 50,000,000 shares for ¥140,000 million, raised its interim and expected year-end dividends on common and Class A stock, and reported higher half-year net income despite slightly lower sales.
    • On the same day, Inpex also lifted its full-year 2026 profit guidance while narrowing its revenue range, signaling a stronger earnings outlook supported by stable Ichthys Project production and updated commodity price and foreign exchange assumptions amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
    • We’ll now examine how Inpex’s newly announced buyback program interacts with its existing investment narrative around LNG growth and capital returns.

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    Inpex Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Inpex today, you need to believe that its LNG-focused portfolio, especially Ichthys, can keep generating solid cash flows while management returns more of that cash to shareholders. The latest buyback and dividend hikes support that capital return angle, but they do not fundamentally change the near term catalyst, which is continued stable LNG output, or the key risk, which remains exposure to commodity prices and policy-driven energy transition pressures.

    The most immediately relevant announcement is the new share repurchase program of up to 50,000,000 shares for ¥140,000 million. Coming alongside higher dividends and upgraded 2026 profit guidance, it adds another layer to the existing capital return story, which has already included multi year buybacks and steadily rising payouts. For investors watching earnings per share and total yield, the interaction between ongoing LNG cash generation and this stepped up return of capital will be central to how the thesis unfolds.

    Yet against stronger buybacks and higher dividends, investors should be aware of how policy driven decarbonization could eventually challenge LNG focused cash flows...

    Read the full narrative on Inpex (it's free!)

    Inpex's narrative projects ¥2226.5 billion revenue and ¥432.7 billion earnings by 2029.

    Uncover how Inpex's forecasts yield a ¥4300 fair value, a 11% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TSE:1605 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TSE:1605 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the most optimistic analysts were already assuming revenue near ¥2,426,000 million and earnings around ¥480,000 million by 2029, so you may see this latest buyback and guidance upgrade as either reinforcing that bullish cash return story or as increasing exposure to the same concentration risks they worry about in Ichthys and Abadi, which is why it is worth comparing these different views before deciding what you believe.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Inpex - why the stock might be worth as much as 28% more than the current price!

    Form Your Own Verdict

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

    • A great starting point for your Inpex research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Inpex research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Inpex's overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.