CITIC Securities: Currently, the wine industry is at the stage where volume and price are bottoming out

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the wine industry is currently at the bottom of volume and price. In terms of sales, it is expected that the increase in the proportion of women drinking may appropriately increase the number of people who can drink the product, but there is relatively limited room for an increase in the overall scale; in terms of price, the industry is gradually increasing the tonnage price through products, increasing products by more than 100 yuan in the red wine category, and continuing to increase the sales share of white wine and rosé wine. In the current context where the industry is under high pressure and consumers are relatively mature, enterprises should focus more on how to maintain product strength and effective channel access to achieve an increase in market share. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the industry and reflected changes in consumer behavior.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

The market size is 70 billion yuan, and the competitive landscape is fragmented.

According to Euromonitor data, the volume of wine reached 72.8 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR was -14.1% for the period 2022 to 2025. The domestic wine market experienced rapid expansion in the early stages, peaked around 2017, and then gradually declined. Currently, the industry as a whole is in a stage of stock contraction and structural differentiation. The total volume of the industry continues to decline, but there are certain structural opportunities in internal categories and prices. The competitive pattern in the domestic wine market is scattered. CR5 is only about 35%. There are many small and medium-sized wineries and regional brands in the industry, and a large number of small to medium production capacity continues to clear.

Development review: The industry has gone through a complete cycle and is undergoing structural adjustments.

① 2005-2012: In the golden decade, volume and price, driven by government and commerce, rose sharply. After China joined the WTO in 2001, import tariffs were drastically reduced. The high growth in GDP and import and export volume during the same period led to the explosion of business banquets and gift scenarios. Wine quickly penetrated as a symbol of “quality of life”, and China became the fifth largest consumer country in the world;

② 2013-2017: Changes in consumption scenarios and customer base, emphasis on product quality, increase in the proportion of imported products. After the eight regulations were introduced, the government affairs scenario gradually faded out of the market, directly affecting sales and channel models for products including the Great Wall and Dynasty. According to Euromonitor data, the size of China's wine market fell 9.0% to 145 billion yuan in 2013, then recovered (-0.1%/+12.5%/+8.7% YoY in 2014/2015/2016). At this stage, international brands are rapidly regaining growth with better wine quality and brand strength;

③ 2018-2021: Significant decline. The epidemic and double effects affected the development of the industry. The endogenous growth momentum of the industry has weakened. Combined with trade remedy measures brought about by geographical trade frictions between China and Australia, as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the supply side and demand side are under simultaneous pressure;

④ 2021-2026: Moments of downturn and structural restructuring. Production declined 54.7% from 2022 to 2025. The wine industry is gradually undergoing market reforms at the bottom to enhance understanding of consumer needs and enhance the comprehensive capabilities of the industry. The industry is showing a trend of high-end structure, diversification of categories, and breakthroughs in domestic fine wines.

Self-satisfaction scenarios are developing, and consumers demand high product power.

The domestic wine consumer base is undergoing a profound paradigm shift. From being highly dependent on social attributes such as business and festivals in the past to enjoying their daily lives, companies need to have the ability to operate and promote family scenarios, not just 2B scenarios such as restaurants and group purchases. On the consumer side, after rapid development over the past 20 years, the market has completed adequate education for middle class consumers. The number of people holding WSET wine certificates in China has surpassed that of the United Kingdom and the US, and consumers with solid tasting ability. Based on comprehensive estimates of consumption scenarios and people, it is estimated that sales in the white wine category are expected to maintain a growth rate of more than one unit over the next 3 years, making it a sub-industry with potential for growth.

Risk factors:

Macro consumer demand falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; the price market performance of core products in the wine industry falls short of expectations; channel inventory risks in the wine industry; food safety issues.