QIC sees Australia home prices falling 5%-10% peak-to-trough as RBA tightening bites

• QIC analysis flagged a clear housing-led slowdown as evidence the RBA’s restrictive policy is cooling demand.
• Capital city house prices fell 2.8% from the peak; QIC forecast a 5%-10% peak-to-trough decline.
• Investor demand weakened following capital gains tax and negative gearing changes; CBA cited investor mortgage applications down 28% since the Federal Budget.
• Labour market resilience seen as key to limiting spillovers; wage growth around 3.25% with unemployment at 4.5% in July.
• Housing undersupply expected to cap further declines; QIC said the adjustment reduces the likelihood of another rate rise.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. QIC Ltd. published the original content used to generate this news brief on August 21, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.