S&P Global Energy predicts that by 2035, the processing volume of European refineries will drop 20% to slightly more than 9 million b/d, compared to 14 million b/d in the early 21st century; in the US, S&P expects refinery processing to drop 7% to 16.7 million b/d by 2035; in contrast, refineries in the Middle East, Africa and Asia will continue to grow. Daniel Evans, head of global refining at S&P, said the impact of the Iran war did not change the trajectory of the industry. He pointed out, “It has prompted the West to rethink the strategic importance of oil refining. But will that change the fundamentals in the long run? I think probably not.”

S&P Global Energy predicts that by 2035, the processing volume of European refineries will drop 20% to slightly more than 9 million b/d, compared to 14 million b/d in the early 21st century; in the US, S&P expects refinery processing to drop 7% to 16.7 million b/d by 2035; in contrast, refineries in the Middle East, Africa and Asia will continue to grow. Daniel Evans, head of global refining at S&P, said the impact of the Iran war did not change the trajectory of the industry. He pointed out, “It has prompted the West to rethink the strategic importance of oil refining. But will that change the fundamentals in the long run? I think probably not.”