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To own Ultragenyx today, you need to believe its rare disease portfolio can grow fast enough to offset ongoing losses and a short cash runway. The GENGLYCOS accelerated approval directly reduces regulatory risk around DTX401, but the biggest near term swing factor still looks to be whether upcoming UX111 decisions and new launches can meaningfully improve cash generation before further dilution becomes a concern.
The DOJOLVI patent settlement with Esjay Pharma, allowing a generic from 2033, underlines how finite exclusivity is even for orphan products. While this does not affect the immediate GENGLYCOS opportunity, it reinforces the importance of each new launch and Priority Review Voucher in supporting future revenue and funding Ultragenyx’s expanding gene therapy pipeline.
Yet against this progress, investors should still keep a close eye on the risk that high cash burn and less than one year of cash runway could...
Read the full narrative on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (it's free!)
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical's narrative projects $1.3 billion revenue and $114.0 million earnings by 2029.
Uncover how Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical's forecasts yield a $52.05 fair value, a 106% upside to its current price.
Some of the lowest ranked analysts were assuming revenue of about US$945 million by 2029 and still no clear profitability, so compared with GENGLYCOS approval and the UX111 catalyst, they paint a much more cautious picture that you might want to compare with your own expectations.
Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical - why the stock might be worth just $26.00!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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