What Is Behind Seadrill (SDRL) Latest Move?
Seadrill (SDRL) stock is in focus after the company reported a return to profitability in its second quarter of 2026 and raised full year revenue guidance, giving investors fresh information to reassess the offshore driller.
See our latest analysis for Seadrill.
The raised 2026 guidance and completed buyback program help explain why Seadrill’s recent momentum is firming, with a year to date share price return of 37.02% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 64.57%, despite a softer 90 day share price performance that is down 6.06%.
If Seadrill’s move has you thinking about other energy related ideas, this could be a helpful moment to scan the 39 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks.
After a 1 year total return of 64.57%, the obvious win was catching Seadrill before this run. The real tension now is whether recent guidance and buybacks still leave meaningful upside ahead, or if most of the gain is already in the rear-view mirror.
Most Popular Narrative: 9.3% Undervalued
Against Seadrill’s last close at $47.89, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of $52.78. This places the stock at a modest discount and centers the discussion on how future contracts and margins might justify that gap.
Supply of competitive ultra-deepwater rigs remains tight due to minimal newbuilds and uneconomical reactivations. This positions Seadrill's high-spec fleet for greater pricing power and margin improvement as the market rebalances, ultimately benefiting net margins and profitability.
Curious what kind of revenue growth, margin lift, and earnings profile sit behind that valuation gap. The narrative leans heavily on future contract economics and a different profitability mix than today. If you want to see how those moving pieces stack up against the $52.78 fair value, the full narrative spells out the assumptions in detail.
Result: Fair Value of $52.78 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, Seadrill’s story could look very different if softer utilization and contract delays in regions like Angola keep rigs idle and put pressure on day rates.
Find out about the key risks to this Seadrill narrative.
Another View on Seadrill’s Valuation
While the Seadrill narrative leans on a fair value of $52.78 from future earnings assumptions, the SWS DCF model paints a different picture. On that method, Seadrill at $47.89 compares with an estimated future cash flow value of $88.05, which points to a much larger undervaluation. Which lens do you trust more when cash flows and earnings tell different stories?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Next Steps
With Seadrill presenting both upbeat guidance and clear uncertainties around utilization, this is a moment to move quickly and test the data yourself. To weigh both the potential rewards and the issues investors are watching, start with the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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