HighPeak Energy (HPK) Stock Could Still Be A Bargain After An 86% Run

HighPeak Energy has delivered an 86.1% gain year to date, which raises a clear question for investors about whether the current share price still reflects good value given the broader valuation checks and recent business momentum.

• Year to date, HighPeak Energy is up 86.1%, which puts recent buyers on strong gains and sets a higher bar for any further upside to be justified.
• Recent revenue and margin progress can support confidence in the earnings base. At the same time, the share price now embeds higher expectations that may be sensitive if growth or cash generation slows.
• The stock screens as undervalued on most metrics, with a high valuation score indicating that the broader checks lean cheap in 5 of 6 areas on our assessment.

The issue now is whether HighPeak Energy's strong year to date run still leaves enough value on the table for new and existing shareholders at today's price.

Find out why HighPeak Energy's 10.2% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Is HighPeak Energy Still Cheap on Sales?

The P/S ratio is a useful cross check for HighPeak Energy because investors often look at sales based metrics for companies where earnings can swing with commodity prices and investment cycles.

HighPeak Energy trades on a P/S ratio of 1.2x, which is below the Oil and Gas industry average of 2.0x and also below the peer average of 4.5x. The fair P/S ratio from the broader checks is 1.9x, so the current multiple sits below what would typically be expected once growth, margins, size and risk profile are taken into account. This indicates the market is not placing a high sales based premium on the stock despite the recent Q2 2026 update that showed revenue of US$272.4 million and an operating margin of 29.5%.

On this P/S framework, HighPeak Energy stock appears undervalued relative to both its tailored fair multiple and the wider Oil and Gas group.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

The HighPeak Energy Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

Simply Wall St Narratives builds on the earlier valuation checks on HighPeak Energy and explores what kind of future growth, margins and earnings profile would need to hold for the stock to be worth materially more or less than today’s price, using the Community page as the home for these scenarios. Each narrative presents HighPeak Energy's fair value as a thesis about the business that can be tracked over time rather than a one off snapshot.

Community views on HighPeak Energy are sharply split, with one side focused on efficiency led upside and the other on long term demand and valuation risk.

Bull case: 17% undervalued

"Rapid efficiency gains including the success of simul-frac completions and ongoing declines in drilling and completion costs are structurally lowering HighPeak's breakeven levels and enhancing the economics of future wells, which should directly support margin expansion and free cash flow generation…"

Read the full Bull Case to see why HighPeak Energy could be undervalued

Bear case: 66% overvalued

"The ongoing global shift towards renewables and electrification, accelerated by government policy and changing consumer behavior, is likely to reduce long-term demand for oil and gas, setting up a structural decline in HighPeak Energy's revenue and undermining its production growth outlook…"

Read the full Bear Case to see why HighPeak Energy could be overvalued

Do you think there's more to the story for HighPeak Energy? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

The Bottom Line

HighPeak Energy still screens as undervalued on market multiples, even after a strong year to date run. The main question now is whether recent revenue and margin performance can be sustained well enough for that discount to close, or whether it reflects ongoing concern about long term oil and gas demand. For investors, the key debate is whether HighPeak Energy can keep converting operational efficiency into durable cash generation, rather than just cyclical strength tied to commodity prices.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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