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To own State Street, you need to believe its fee driven model in custody, ETFs, and trading remains resilient even as markets and technology evolve. The recent ETF closures look incremental rather than thesis changing, while record Q2 2026 fee income underscores that near term momentum is tied most closely to sustaining servicing and management fee strength. The largest risk still feels centered on fee compression and technology driven disruption across custody and ETF platforms.
The most relevant development here is State Street’s record Q2 2026 results, where higher servicing, management, FX trading, and securities finance revenues lifted earnings. That performance, alongside ongoing dividends and buybacks, reinforces the current catalyst of fee income growth and operating leverage, even as the firm prunes smaller ETFs. How durable that fee strength is, especially against fee pressure and new competitors, will be crucial to watch.
Yet beneath the recent good news, investors should be aware that fee compression and new technology driven competitors could...
Read the full narrative on State Street (it's free!)
State Street's narrative projects $17.5 billion revenue and $4.7 billion earnings by 2029.
Uncover how State Street's forecasts yield a $199.50 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.
Some analysts were far more optimistic before this news, assuming revenue could reach about US$18.4 billion and earnings US$4.9 billion, yet their view still sits against concerns about declining noninterest bearing deposits and the impact that could have on net interest income, reminding you that even very bullish narratives can look quite different once new information is considered.
Explore 3 other fair value estimates on State Street - why the stock might be worth just $186.40!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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