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To own DLocal, you need to believe its role as a payment gateway for global merchants in emerging markets can stay central as those ecosystems mature. The raised gross profit growth guidance and Q2 results highlight momentum, while the UATP One deal directly supports the near term catalyst of higher transaction volumes from travel. Key risks remain concentrated exposure to large merchants and ongoing FX and tax volatility, which could blunt earnings even when volumes are growing.
The UATP One partnership looks most relevant here because it plugs DLocal into a broad airline and corporate travel network, potentially amplifying the recent TPV strength from travel merchants. This sits alongside the Q2 TPV growth to US$17.7 billion and higher TPV guidance, reinforcing volume as the main short term driver. At the same time, it does little to reduce underlying regulatory and currency risks that still hang over many of DLocal’s core markets.
Yet investors should also weigh how quickly regulatory shifts or currency moves could alter that risk profile before they...
Read the full narrative on DLocal (it's free!)
DLocal's narrative projects $2.5 billion revenue and $422.6 million earnings by 2029. This requires 27.6% yearly revenue growth and a $230.5 million earnings increase from $192.1 million today.
Uncover how DLocal's forecasts yield a $18.05 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.
Some of the most optimistic analysts were already penciling in revenue near US$2.7 billion and earnings around US$488 million by 2029, so this new UATP volume angle could either support that view or prove those forecasts too aggressive, especially if rising alternatives in payments keep pressuring DLocal’s take rates and long term margins.
Explore 11 other fair value estimates on DLocal - why the stock might be worth as much as 61% more than the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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