NZX Limited Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 13%
It's been a good week for NZX Limited (NZSE:NZX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest interim results, and the shares gained 3.0% to NZ$1.54. NZX beat revenue forecasts by a solid 13% to hit NZ$77m. Statutory earnings per share came in at NZ$0.03, in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for NZX from three analysts is for revenues of NZ$156.1m in 2026. If met, it would imply a meaningful 13% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be NZ$0.07, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of NZ$137.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.071 in 2026. There's clearly been a surge in bullishness around the company's revenue pipeline, even if there's no real change in earnings per share forecasts.
See our latest analysis for NZX
It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of NZ$1.70, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to NZX's valuation in the near term. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NZX at NZ$1.79 per share, while the most bearish prices it at NZ$1.55. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting NZX's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 28% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 10% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that NZX is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on NZX. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple NZX analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with NZX , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.