Earnings Beat: Lycopodium Limited Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
It's been a pretty great week for Lycopodium Limited (ASX:LYL) shareholders, with its shares surging 18% to AU$22.31 in the week since its latest full-year results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of AU$378m were in line with what the analyst predicted, Lycopodium surprised by delivering a statutory profit of AU$1.01 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what expert is forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Lycopodium's lone analyst is for revenues of AU$563.5m in 2027. This would reflect a substantial 49% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 38% to AU$1.42. Before this earnings report, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of AU$500.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.22 in 2027. There has definitely been an improvement in perception after these results, with the analyst noticeably increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.
See our latest analysis for Lycopodium
With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analyst has lifted their price target 20% to AU$23.54per share.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Lycopodium's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 49% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 13% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Lycopodium is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analyst upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Lycopodium following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analyst clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2029, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.